Is guessing the weather more accurate than trying to predict it properly?

Question

I once heard that if every day you predict that the weather tomorrow will be pretty much the same as it is today, you will be statistically more accurate than a proper weather forecaster. Is this true? I know it sounds stupid at first, but when you think about it it is feasible, since the weather on two consecutive days will more often be the same than not.

I understand that I won't always be correct, but If the weather tends to remain pretty much the same for periods of a couple of weeks at a time before shifting (which it normally seems to do), I will be correct about 13 times out of 14, which is an accuracy rate of 93%. I don't know how accurate the professionals are, but I know that they do get the weather wrong now and again (perhaps every couple of weeks?).

Answer 1

If you followed that rule you would predict a continually same climate .... as if u started it on a rainy day theoretically you would be assuming every day would rain!

It is likely to work in places where the climate doesnt change much ie the rainforests, where its pretty much expected to be humid every day, and rain at set times...however you have to accept that the weather isnt a simple process, but the accumulation of many complex systems, so although predicting it mightnt always be reliable, it is probably more so that just assuming everything will stay constant.

Answer 2

I am only speaking from expreience in the United States, I dont live in the UK nor do I pay attention to the weather there. In the United States the weather will be the same for long periods of time generally when blocking patters set up. In this case the weather will remain pretty constant for a few weeks. But major weather systems tend to be on a 4-10 day cycle, where a low pressure system will move through and then be replaced by a high pressure system. So by just predicting based on the current days weather the forecast will never be able to adjust when cold fronts come through thus your forecast will bomb.

The other thing to look at is that the models that forecasters use (GFS, NAM, etc) are generally pretty good out to about three days, but the resolution of these models extends out to about 7-10 days. After about three days there are a lot of problems that are encountered with models and they become less accurate. This is the reason why forecasts will change during the course of a week, this is what really annoys people.

Thus just by using the current days weather and forecasting using persistance, I dont think you will ever be able to achieve the accuracy of modern forecasting methods. In some areas of the world it may work for a while but there are still weather systems that will start getting missed. There will then be days where the forecast calls for sun and its raining.

Answer 3

It is very easy and accurate to predict weather in your own local area. Some people, fisher folk and farmers in UK are very experienced at this.

There are lots of clues.

The Moon plays a major role in UK folklore and culture. We even count time in moons or nights - fortnight = 14 days half of one Lunar month = 28 days etc.

Look at the Moon [when the sky is clear enough] and judge it's colour from where you view it. The warmer the glow and more golden the Moon the warmer the following [next] day will be.

A cold silver Moon indicates cool air and a cold day to follow.

The old saysings such as 'red sky at night...etc' have no real meaning in the modern sense, simply because what we call red today, is not what people called 'red' in the ancient past.

In the past 'red' was just a warm glow around the moon, slightly red in colour and no more. Remember, the saying is about 'night' - not sunset or dawn, but at 'night'. So if you do see a warm glow around the moon at 'night' this does indeed signal a warm front moving in where you are.

There is a small insect in UK sometimes called a 'migie' [mijjie] this insect will take to the air in large numbers and hover about some six to ten feet above your lawn. When you see this happen, especially towards evening, this too indicates good weather for the next day.

Long range forecasts are a bit more difficult. You'll have to find out these for yourself. But usually sea conditions if you are at the coast are a good indicater, white horses mean a storm is brewing etc. Have your local fishing fleet all go out to sea? If yes, then it's a safe bet they've either heard the weather forecast is good on the radio or know it's going to be good or have listened to ship to shore messages about a massive shoul of herring or something.

Finally and here's the best weather forecast clue of all, if you have a church near you with a weather ****, take a look at that. If the wind is from the south = warm.

Rough guide to wind and weather : -

Wind from north = cold [winter or summer]
Wind from east = cold [winter or summer]
Wind from south = warm/hot [esp. summer]
Wind from south west = rain damp
Wind from west = rain damp

UK is subject to Atlantic weather most of the time. It can also be subject to a Viking blast from the North and North East.

Don't tell me. I used to live on the North Kent [Viking] coast and we nearly always froze in winter.

Answer 4

Nope - otherwise the weather would be the same year round. Professional meteorologists use complex models and super computers and analyze the patterns which will cause weather, making their forecast more accurate (here in Kansas City, for instance, it is almost 100 - but will be 78 on Wed.) Forecasting by your guessing method, I'd guess 100 tomorrow, and be wrong, guess the 92 it will be tomorrow for Tuesday (and be wrong), and on, and on.

Answer 5

I think this depends where you live. Britain does have weather that can change particularly quickly but for say, the Sahara desert, you'd be most likely spot on every time.

Try this for a forecast in Britain: summer: mild with sunny spells, or winter, cool with a chance of rain, and you'd be right most days (maybe except for this past June though!)

Answer 6

I squeeze my seaweed; if it is wet, it is raining.

I sometimes watch the forecast, The Midlands has it's own weather system so they haven't bothered to work it out...London Central Forecasters.

In Britain, pretty much what you see is what you get.

Answer 7

yes i heard the same thing as you

Answer 8

Guessing so is only a guess.