An energy company told me that "Seismic equipment have detected anomalies that are consistent with prolific...

Question

amounts of natural gas and/or oil." Does that mean what I think it means, which is 10 to 1 they have found gas or oil.

Answer 1

I wouldn't put the odds at 10 to 1 no but they are telling you that they believe there is a good chance that a significant hydrocarbon deposit is present. The definition of significant differs from company to company, typically smaller companies have much lower thresholds for considering a potential hydrocarbon reservoir to be of 'significant' size. The use of the term prolific is a little worrisome, sounds a bit like oversell because the term prolific actually refers not just to how much the reservoir might produce over time but to how quickly it can produce that volume. This can usually only be determined by a flow test of a well. I don't think that's what they mean by using the term prolific though. They're probably just trying to tell you a fairly large accumulation of oil or gas could be present.

The statement "seismic equipment have detected anomalies that are consistent with prolific amounts of natural gas and/or oil" sounds impressive but is actually a pretty vague statement and you need more information. I've seen lots of dry holes drilled into 'seismic anomalies that were consistent with gas and/or oil'! Are there other producing wells in your area? If so that can improve the confidence the geologist has in the interpretation of seismic information. If there are nearby wells producing from equivalent strata and a 3D seismic survey is available over the area then a comparison can be made of the seismic impedence character of the undrilled potential reservoir with the impedence character of the producing reservoirs. There are many possible geologic
causes of seismic anomalies (usually called 'bright spots'), one of which is the presence of hydrocarbon. That's why you really need calibration to known hydrocarbons, preferably within the same seimic survey, to feel confident that the anomaly you are seeing is a hydrocarbon response. Also, detecting anomalies is a far cry from actually mapping the anomalies out to see if a good trap appears to be present and whether the extent of the anomalous bright spot seems to 'fit structure'. What that means is that if the anomaly is really a response to seimic waves slowing down as they pass through gas or oil then speeding up again as they pass through the salt water saturated portion of the reservoir below the oil (oil and gas migrate to the top of the trap and 'float' on the water beneath and all of the rock pore spaces are filled with one of the 3- water, oil or gas) you should see the response stop at the same level in the structure across the reservoir. So if you used the seimic information to map out the structure and draw contour lines representing the depth of the top or the base of the reservoir then overlay a picture of the areal extent of the bright spot (which can be extracted from the seimic data) the edge of the bright spot should roughly follow the shape of one of the contour lines. This would represent the depth at which the oil is floating on the water. If they haven't mapped it out and done this comparison and are just telling you they see seismic anomalies in the data then I wouldn't be very confident at all that the anomalies represent hydrocarbon. They might but that's only one possibility.

Answer 2

Modern seismic equipment can indicate where oil and gas is however the same anomalies on seismic records can also indicate other things. When oil exploration was in its infancy the success rate with oil or gas wells was about 1 successful well in every 50. To day with modern methods including seismic it is about 1 successful well in every four. In other words we are a lot better at telling where oil and gas is but there is nothing like a well to be absolutely certain.

Answer 3

The odds would be much closer to 1 to 10 than it would be 10 to 1. No way they have a 90% chance of hitting based only on seismic data.

Answer 4

Yes, that means that as the earth's tetonic plates slide, it's happened to uncover more natural gas or oil according the anolmilies the machince picked up.

Answer 5

The only possible interpretation is yes, they think they've found a deposit of natural gas or oil.

Answer 6

i'm no oil geologist, but it sounds like they're just being cautious. you never really know until you dig i suppose, but if they seriously thought there was some other explanation for their results they would probably mention the alternative explanation.

Answer 7

Sound to me like they're trying to sell you some worthless stock.