Who will make to the Hall of Fame next year?

Question

I think Rich Gossage will finally make it.

Bert Blyleven definitely deserves to be there. He's the 5th in K's with a very good K/BB ratio, was 13 shy of 300 victories and 3.31 lifetime ERA is very good.

Which one will make it on their 1st ballot?

Those are the better candidates: Brady Anderson, Andy Benes, Delino DeShields, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, Travis Fryman, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Mike Morgan, Robb Nen, Tim Raines, Greg Swindell, Randy Velarde, Mark Wohlers.

I forgot to mention Rod Beck. He recently passed away, and that makes him eligible on this ballot. I don't see him making it but he will receive some votes.

By the way, Blyleven is the only nonactive pitcher with at least 3000 K that has not been inducted.

Answer 1

This is going to be an interesting year.

There are no clear superstars on the list, like Ripken or Gwynn, that will monopolize attention. That traditionally has made it easier for some bubble picks to make it in.

Tim Raines definitely ought to be considered. He was a little overshadowed by Rickey Henderson when it comes to leadoff men, and by playing in Montreal, but the man could play. The rest of the first timers will disappear.

That leaves the familiar names left. It's probably time for Rich Gossage to make it in. He was a dominating force in his time, and pitched a lot of innings.

The others are more difficult. Bert Blyleven was quite good for a long time -- which accounts for something -- but I never thought of him as "great." So he's a tough one. Rice was great for several years, but his career fell off a cliff at the end so he didn't produce overwhelming career numbers. That's a different type of problem for voters.

I don't see others coming very close to 75 percent. Andre Dawson, Tommy John, Alan Trammell and Jack Morris will get votes. Don Mattingly's back prevented him from putting up great career numbers. No one is sure what to do with McGwire, but he isn't going in.

Just to agree with someone else, this could be a year where no one gets 75 percent. Which will make it a dull weekend in Cooperstown.

Answer 2

Blyleven and Gossage are both deserving and the only new comer on the list you provided that will get any serious attention will be Tim Raines. But in all sincerity i think 2008 and possibly even 2009 (dependent if Ricky Henderson comes back for 1 game with the Oakland A's in September)at this point Henderson is eligible in 2009.
It would mark the first time since 1960 that there was not anyone selected.
other years no one was selected (1958, 1950, 1943, 1941, 1940)
in 1996 no one was elected by the Baseball Writers, but 1Player, 1 ***** League Star, and 2 Managers were elected by the THEN Veterans Committee
This also occured in 1971 when a record 8 Players were elected by the Veterans Committee the most noticeable was Satchel Page.
This happened a few other times during the voting but most noticeably from 1944 thru 1946 when 22 players,executives, managers et al were selected by the veterans committee (the most noticeable name out of these 22 was Kenesaw Mountain Landis). But, not one player was named during this time by the Baseball Writers.

Answer 3

List of players on ballot from Wikipedia:

Returning Players on Ballot
Harold Baines- Eventually
Bert Blyleven- Very Soon
Dave Concepción- Should, but won't
Andre Dawson- Nah
Rich "Goose" Gossage- Should go in, but won't this year.
Tommy John- Needs to go in, and not for the surgery (The guy won 288 games for crying out loud!).
Don Mattingly- Will make it in very soon.
Mark McGwire- Steroids killed any chance of him making it.
Jack Morris- A couple more years will get him in.
Dale Murphy- The only Brave to win multiple MVP awards (not even Hank Aaron did it!). He will eventually.
Dave Parker- Not quite
Jim Rice- Nope
Lee Smith- Now that Hoffman's moved by, he has no chance
Alan Trammell- Should, but only as a player.

First timers are Luis Alicea, Brady Anderson, Alex Arias, Andy Benes, Mike Benjamin, Dennis Cook, Delino DeShields, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, Darrin Fletcher, Travis Fryman, Rich Garcés, Chris Haney, Dave Hollins, Bobby J. Jones, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Tom Lampkin, Darren Lewis, Mike Magnante, Dave Mlicki, Mike Morgan, Robb Nen, Hipólito Pichardo, Tim Raines, Armando Reynoso, Henry Rodríguez, Lee Stevens, Todd Stottlemyre, Greg Swindell, Mike Trombley, John Valentin, Randy Velarde, Ed Vosberg, and Mark Wohlers.

Of those, only Anderson, Dunston, Fryman, Justice, Lampkin, Nen, Raines, and Swindell have a shot, and of those I think only Nen and Raines should make it.

Answer 4

If Gossage makes it before Lee Smith things are even more screwed up than before. Guys who should make it this year are:

Dawson, Rice & Smith

Baines, Blyleven, Gossage, Mattingly, Morris & Parker should make it in eventually (based on statistics).

As for the first timers this year only Raines & Nen should even be considered.

How anyone can consider Anderson or Dunston as even contenders for the HOF are insane. Anderson hit a whopping .256 for his career and never even had a .300 season. Dunston does not even have a .300 OBP so how TK thought he could garner any consideration is beyond me.

Answer 5

Raines is the only Hall-worthy candidate among the ballot rookies. All the rest can fall below the 5% relegation cutoff for all I care, though I could see Finley and Justice squeaking by.

I'd vote for Raines, Gossage, Blyleven, and McGwire.

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ps. Just to opine on the possibility of a writers' shutout year -- possible, but I doubt it. Gossage, I am certain, gets in. On the 2007 ballot, he cracked 71% on his return, and that was WITH Ripken and Gwynn headlining the ballot. His returns have a surge trend that will, I think, give him the happy ending in 2008.

Huh... the Hall's website has been significantly updated. Check it out.

Answer 6

It's the Hall of Fame, NOT the Hall of Very Good.

None of the first timers were good enough to get in. Maybe Raines, and that's even questionable.

With Sutter already in, Gossage should go in next year. This may be Blyleven and Morris' best chance to.


Future Hall of Fame candidates and the year they are first eligible:
2009: Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson
2010: Roberto Alomar, Fred McGriff, Robin Ventura
2011: Jeff Bagwell

Among these, Henderson, Alomar and Bagwell are the closest thing to locks.

Answer 7

I think Knoblauch could be a good candidate. He was one of the best 2nd baseman of his time, and with a weak class he can get in.

I agree with Gossage and Blyleven. Both were pretty good in their day and they deserve to be in the HOF.

Answer 8

I would like to see Jim Rice make it if his career wouldnt have been cut short his numbers would have been huge.

I agree with you on Blyleven and Goose though and they will make it before Rice does

of the first timers the only 1 I see ever making it is Tim Raines like one year before his eligibility runs out

Answer 9

Can't argue with Blyleven. Goose should make it too. I would like to see Ron Santo make it