In 10-15 years, do you think Bonds will still hold homerun record?

Question

(Assuming he breaks it)

Answer 1

I think in that time Alex Rodriguez will break it.

Answer 2

Bonds will break the record this year he's on pace to break it by August 2nd. Knowing that he will probably hit 15-20 HR's next year if he does play again next year, but his reign wont last long because there are good ballplayers out there and A-Rod is the front runner to break Bonds record assuming that he will break it on August 2nd.
For the first 1817 games of their careers Bonds hit 290 HRs while A-Rod hit 101 more HR's, A-Rod hit 391 Hr's during his first career 1817 games. A-Rod is is averaging 42 HR's through his first 10 Seasons in the MLB while Bonds was averaging 27-32 HRs. If A-Rod plays for 10 more years til he's 40 or 41 and averages 30-35 HR's he will have 800-850 HR's in his career knowing that A-Rod will surpass the 500 HR mark this year (A-Rod needs 8(492) to get 500 HRs as of today). I think A-Rod will hold the Homerun Record for a long time. Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard are great homerun hitters but i dont think they'll break it but i think they'll hiit between 750-825 career HR's after they're done smashing the baseball. A-Rod will be the HomeRun King for the next 50-70 years. That's about the same time before Babe Ruth's record standed (715).

Answer 3

That will mainly be up to Bonds and Rodriguez.

Alex is in good position, given his age and career to date, but 750 is half-again past 500. That's a long way to go, and only two players ever have gotten there. I'd like to see Rodriguez make a challenge, because that's the sort of baseball I like to watch and find entertaining. But predicting an outcome at this point is simply guessing.

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ps. I will state without fear of contradiction that Ryan Howard will not hold the home run record, nor reach 500 in his career. Started too late, has totally the wrong body type for playing to age 40.

Unless he jumps to the Rockies, then maybe 500.

Answer 4

Who knows? It's impossible to predict.


I'd guess that the record stays Bonds' forever or at least more than 25 years, but A-Rod is certainly on pace should he play as many seasons as Bonds. My thinking is that by the time Bonds retires, it's going to be closer to 850 than 750. That's going to mean A-Rod will have to stay unbelievably healthy and productive to come close.

EDIT: Nice math brad, but those numbers would be to break Aaron's numbers, not the numbers Bonds will put up. We don't know those yet. And I think you contradict yourself when you say big guys don't hang around long enough, then go on to say Howard has a shot. And Howard has no shot. Sure he broke A-Rod's fastest to 100, but that's not based on age; it's based on games played. Howard was in the minors for years, A-Rod came out at 18 and began to produce. There is no way Ryan Howard gets in on this discussion unless he puts up several more 50+ HR seasons.

Answer 5

Arod will be the Home run king no doubt if he continues to do is average play for another 6 years. Pujols will not be around as long as some might think big guys like that don't last a very long time , and he has been inconsistant this year, maybe he was on steroids the past years, and he isn't now thats why his number are down. I think the next player to be in the running for most home runs will be Ryan Howard. He broke Arods record for fastest to 100 home runs so he has a chance.

Answer 6

Yes, I think he will. Mainly because, I dont think he will retire this year. I think we will go to the AL next year and play as a DH. I think by the time he does retire, he will be in the high 700 to maybe 800 mark.

As a DH (especially for a decent hitting team), he will be unstopabble. Whether you like the guy or not, he is arguably, the greatest hitter ever, or atleast of our generation. This is something that you dont see too often.

Now the closest person to Bonds was Griffey. But being hurt for many years, will likely mean he wont be able to continue for much longer.

Now A-rod is having a great year and a great career, but he is not a traditional homerun hitter. I think as the years go by, he will lose a bit of his power, which will hurt is HR game. He will still be an awesome player, but I dont think he will be able to hit that many HR's.

The HR record is perhaps one of the hardest records to break. Amazingly, it will be broken now, but to say that it will be broken again in such a short period of time......probably wont happen.

Answer 7

Bonds will play, unfortunately, until he breaks it.
At the rate A-rod is going, it will still take him about another 9 years to break it. If Pujols goes at his current rate, then if he plays as long as Bonds has, then he will end up with about 900. I only hope that Bonds' tainted record only lasts another 8-9 years. *******

Answer 8

No. In 10 years Pujols will be closing in on Arod's record.

Answer 9

Baring any unforeseen problems A-Rod should finish somewhere around 800. After that I would give Pojols a shot at 800 as well.

Answer 10

yeah he'll still hold the record but A-rod and Pujols will be close