Which is more important, talented and proven player, or talented player full of potential?

Question

I ask this question because a lot of fans seem to be upset with the Atlanta Hawks passing of PG Mike Conley Jr and getting Acie Law IV later in the draft. Acie law did the award for best Collegiate PG but Mike Conley Jr is seen to have more potential. There are other examples out there to, Thaddeus Young vs guys like Glen Davis and Nick Fazeikas. Proven upper classmen players tend to be more consistent in the pros, examples Paul Millsap, Josh Howard, Gilbert Arenas, Michael Redd, Carlos Boozer, but taken later in the draft. While younger players with perhaps more potential to be a star, examples Kwame Brown, Andrew Bynum, Darko Millic, Jonathon Bender, Keidrick Brown, are taken higher in the draft.

Answer 1

Talented & proven.

Answer 2

While I think blindly chasing potential seems kind of insane (esp. in hindsight), I really think you have to think of it from a GM's perspective. It's like the old question of whether it's better to have a team that goes 10 years where they make the playoffs but don't win a championship (like Mavs or Nets) or whether you want a ring.

In the NBA, superstars reign. Apart from the one Pistons championship, nearly every champ in the last 20 years was lead by a superstar. So, if your team doesn't have a dominant superstar, do you necessarily go for the good player ? Or do you risk going for someone who could be great ?

Sure there's awful potential picks like you've listed... but the good 'proven' players you've listed aren't necessarily the rule, but more an exception. I mean, even if you look at all the players who've ever won the NCAA Player of the Year, it's a mixed bag... you've got maybe 3 superstars, a few stars and a lot of role players. So proven ability only gets you so far.

It's like the NBA draft is a lot of guesswork anyway... so if you have to guess, you might as well guess big. KG, Kobe, Dirk Nowitzki, Amare Stoudemire etc were all huge risks but they paid off... more so than the people who took the 'established' players in those same drafts like Stackhouse, Camby, LaFrentz or Gooden.

I think when you have a developing team without a clear cut superstar like the Hawks, a gamble wouldn't be so bad. Acie Law may end up being a great pro... but I think why people are upset is because he doesn't have the same possibility of becoming a superstar. People are always going to be more concerned about letting the 'next big thing' get away rather than the solid 15-7 PG.

Answer 3

Many GM's like the thought of taking a high risk / high reward player because it gives them something to look forward to in the future. If you draft a player whose already reached their ceiling potential in terms of growth, it makes it hard for any team get excited about drafting that player. You've named all the upside of picking a proven college upperclassmen (Juniors or Seniors) and the downside of picking unproven college players (or high school) with promising potential. Now let me show you the flip side of that equation.


Proven college players who either had a questionable NBA career or were just big-time busts:

Ed O'Banon
Michael Olawakandi
Joe Smith
Harold Miner
Mike Sweetney
J.J. Redick
Adam Morrison


High school / college projects with an unknown track record who succeeded in the NBA:

Shawn Kemp
Kevin Garnett
Kobe Bryant
Tracy McGrady
Amare Stoudemire
Dwight Howard
Josh Smith


For every diamond in the rough that a team finds, there is probably like 10 busts projects to go with it. It's kind of like playing the lottery where GM's and scouts are trying to find the hidden gem in the draft so they observe a player based on potential and growth in the long run. As much as a team may be afraid of drafting the next Ed O'Bannon but if it was a risk that could land them the next Kobe Bryant, many would do it in a heartbeat.

Answer 4

Proven college players who either had a questionable NBA career or were just big-time busts:

Ed O'Banon
Michael Olawakandi
Joe Smith
Harold Miner
Mike Sweetney
J.J. Redick
Adam Morrison


High school / college projects with an unknown track record who succeeded in the NBA:

Shawn Kemp
Kevin Garnett
Kobe Bryant
Tracy McGrady
Amare Stoudemire
Dwight Howard
Josh Smith were all the things said.

Answer 5

Talented and Proven player. Why wait for a player to develop? The NBA aren't your parents to groom you and hope that you'll become that player they in visioned. Having potential doesn't get you anywhere. Its about proving yourself that you can perform at a high level.

Thank god for the Florida kids who stayed in College. They will be a very good professional with their career.

Answer 6

If you're Ainge, it's option 1......opps