What would be more likely to occur first by a MLB player playing today?

Question

800 Homeruns or 4,000 hits. Is there anyone playing today that would have a shot at either one of these two milestones. If so who, and which one is more likely to reach this lofty level of success? Don't just give me a name, support your position with facts.

Really good answers so far, all of you have put a lot of effort into your response. These kinds of answers really get you thinking.

Answer 1

800 Homeruns will happen at some point. If Bonds can stay healthy and play another 3-4 years he will do it for sure. Next in line for that honor would be A-Rod - like him or hate him he puts up huge numbers. If he averages 30 homeruns for another 10 years putting his retiring age at 42 he will do that. What does that mean? If he is healthy and hits 35 per season for another 8 years he will hit 800 HRs before he turns 40, which is very possible.

4,000 hits? Other than Ty Cobb and Pete Rose - I really don't see anyone reaching that level. I mean that would mean someone playing for 20 yrs and hitting 200 hits per season. I think that is very hard for anyone to do, but records are meant to be broken. I will add that Ichiro would have done so if he had played in MLB his entire career. He has hit over 200 hits in his first 6 seasons for Seattle, but that means he has to play another 12 seasons averaging 200 hits per season, putting him at a retiring age of 46-47, which will not happen.

Good travels

Answer 2

I'd have to say that both are reachable by players in the game today.

The most likely candidate for 800 home runs is, of course, A-Rod. He should reach 500 homeruns by the time his 32nd b-day roles around next month. As of now there is no reason that he can't play 10 more seasons. All he really needs to do is average 30 HR for the next 10 seasons and he'll be at 800. SInce he's averaged over 40 HR a season so far, I think he can do it.

As for 4,000 hits...Jeter is on pace to finish this season with 2350 hits and he is still just 33. He is hitting well over .300 for his career and it would be a stretch, but I'm not sure that 4,000 is out of reach. I think that all it would take is 10 seasons of 165 hits. I know that is a lot of years, but he loves to play the game and he could stick around to do it.

Yes, I hate the fact that the answers to both of those were both currently Yankees, but....it happens.

Answer 3

In this age, where all the advantages go to the hitters, both are possible. But, 800 HR is more attainable than 4000. Bonds, has a realistic chance at 800. ARod and Albert the Great have put themselves in good positions to reach that milestone. Jeter is the likeliest candidate for 4000. I don't see anyone else with a chance at 4000.

Answer 4

I think 800 homeruns. With the steroid era, there might be some higher home run totals. Also, I would think that Albert Pujols and A-Rod would have a good shot at 800. Pujols is averaging 43 homeruns a year, meaning he would need 18 years do accomplish this. There may be some bigger total in the future.

Answer 5

Yes to the 800 homers but no to the 4000 hits. You see If Barry bond plays for at least a year to two more years he has a very good shot. Another person who has a GREAT shot is A-Rod. If you look at his homerun total in his career thats about 500 homer in what like 10-11 years I mean if he keeps it up Im talking HOME RUN CHAMPION.

Answer 6

I think that it is very possibly for Albert Pujols to hit 800 (or more) homeruns before his Major League Baseball career is over. In his first 6 years he has averaged 42 homeruns. At age 27 he has 266 homeruns. If we were to say that he is going to retire at age 40 and he continues that pace he will be at 812 homeruns by the time he retires. I realize that he will not average 42 homeruns/year throughout his whole career, but chances are he will most likely be playing well into his 40's as well.

Answer 7

best choice at the moment isn't A-Rod.. look at Griffey, he's 38 which means he should have 4 good years.. he's obviously steroid free and has 584 HR's as of tonights games.. he's also hot.. and when Griffey gets hot.. he can hit a bunch in a short period.. and at 38.. he still has the sweetest swing in baseball.. the only question is can he hit 55 a year again and do it for 4 years? if he does.. he'll hit 800 in 2011 surpassing Bonds and setting the world of baseball straight and steroid free in the books.. A-Rod is at 492 so it's possible.. but he'll have to do what Griffey hasn't managed and stay healthy a LONG time either way.. I can't wait until Jr hits 600 and writes his ticket to the hall of fame.. as far as 4000 hits? not probable.. if it's to be done.. don't look for a power hitter to do it.. so probably not A-Rod.. Jeter is possible.. my guess would be someone like Jose Reyes.. all the big time hitters w/ 3000+ are speedsters not power guys

Answer 8

I personally don't think that either one of these is actually attainable by any current player. Don't get me wrong there are many great hitters out there, but the game has changed in such a way that these numbers are not going to be reached. Players don't play enough games to reach these numbers. Even looking at A-Rod who is arguably the best hitter out there that might be able to reach these figures, his career will not last long enough to get there. Looking at some miles stones that just happened, Ryan Howard was the quickest to 100 HR's with just over two years worth of games (take into account that this doesn't count the number of games missed) during his prime to get there. That means he would need 16 years of homeruns (again while in his prime) at this pace to get to 800.

Answer 9

I think 4000 hits is more likely. To get 800 homeruns you need to keep a lot of strength for a long time which is hard to do. I think that A-Rod will get 4000 hits because at 31, he is about 700 away from 3000. He has a real shot of getting 4000 hits.

Answer 10

I think you will see 800 homeruns before 4000 hits. baseball is all about long ball now, managers will choose a guy that hits .260 and 40 homeruns over a .310 with 10 homeruns. i think A rod has a chance griffey may have been able to if he stayed healthy