Can Morneau be a 500 HR hitter in his career?

Question

Though people thought him being MVP was just not fair, he's starting to show people that he was well worthy of it, and it rockin' the Twins team righit now.

99 so far in his career, any hopes of 500?

Just want some hands up hands down answers.

Answer 1

As a Canadian, I love the fact that Morneau is doing so well. And while I don't believe that his MVP was any kind of fluke, I think 500 is unrealistic. He has power, but he'd need to start hitting 40-50 a year instead of the 34 he put up last season.

I ran his numbers through a Bill James prediction model, and it gave him a 7.6% chance to hit 500. Personally, I'd give him about a 10% chance. He'll need to play another decade averaging 40 per season without getting hurt, and that's a tough order. My guess is that he finishes up in the 350 range.

Answer 2

As a Twins fan, I would love to see that, but think that it is a bit of a stretch. Lets assume that Morneau averages 40 HR's a year for the rest of his career. That would mean that he would hit 20 more this year giving him about 120 total in his career. Doing the math, he would have to hit another 380 to get to 500. This would take him nine and a half more seasons to get to that number.

While this is possible, there are too many variables to consider. Does Morneau get injured? Does he get traded or signed by another team that does not provide a good environment to hit home-runs? Does the new Twins ballpark suit Morneau's ability?

Justin Morneau is a great player and deserving the MVP last year, but it is far too early in his career to ask this question.

Answer 3

Mays and Schmidt, in spite of the undeniable fact that Schmidt's 4th HR got here interior the tenth inning of a recreation at Wrigley against the Cubs. Mays is the only 500 HR guy to hit 4 HRs in a 9 inning recreation. btw, i did no longer see you ask it, however the 5 hundred HR w/out a three-HR recreation is an exciting question... I did a splash learn and found 2 (the two have been linked to PEDs i think of).

Answer 4

I think he could.

Mauer is also starting to show improvment after his injury. His knees are really worrying me and even though he says that he is fine, he is not OK.

With Mauer's knees, there was an article published that Morneau will train as catcher.

They are both young (Mauer & Morneau) and both "big" guys. I think they will improve and it is a possibility for him to be a 500 HR Hitter.

We are going to kill the Blue Jays this week (hopefully.) Yeah! Go Twins, I am going to watch Pre-game in 15 minutes. hehe and Morneau got back to MN today (not playing of course) but still YAY!

Answer 5

No. He may get close but I think he started a bit too late. He's already 26 and is under 100. Also, he does not seem too have good health-an obvious sign was the bruised lung. Lastly, the AL Central seems to be garnering a lot of good pitchers that will continue to be dominant for years to come: Sabbathia, Carmona, Verlander, Bonderman, Buerhle, etc.

Answer 6

OF COURSE HE WILL!!! Like i've said before, these are some TWINS players we are talking about, i mean this guy is and animal(in a good way lol). He is only 26 and is already won an MVP and he prabably hasn't even got to his point to his career where he is the best player he ever will be, plus come on he is a TWIN!!! GO TWINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Answer 7

Of course he will how many years has he played to hit that many homeruns not that many ya he will get older but yes he will get 500 maybe even 600.

Answer 8

He can be but it is too early to tell. Early in his career, everyone thought that Griffey Jr. was going to break Aarons record, but that doesn't appear very likely anymore.

Answer 9

My hand is down he's just a few season fluke in 5 years he wont be a starter

Answer 10

dont think he has a chance one ok season in your mid 20s and he is a 500 hr guy i dont think so.