What is the best statistical evaluation of how good a pitcher is?

Question

I know everyone loves win - loss record. Basically in todays media driven world a 17 game winner is automatically better than a 14 game winner. But the amount of wins or losses you have basically mean nothing. In theory you could win 20+ games with an ERA over 5.00 if your offense gives you 6 runs. Vice versa you could win 10 games with an ERA around 3.00 if your offense backing you up is weak.

ERA itself doesnt prove the best pitchers, because you could have a good ERA but if you have a high WHIP I would say you arent better than someone with a higher ERA but a lower WHIP than you.

Strikeouts are a sexy stat because they get you in the news but they dont tell the whole story either. If you strikeout 250 batters but your ERA is 4.00 I wouldnt say you are a better pitcher than someone that struck out 100 with a 3.00 ERA.

Overall, I would say the most important are 1) ERA and 2) WHIP.

Any thoughts?

Harry Callahan - you dont understand anything. Wins tell absolutely nothing about how good a pitcher is. Take two pitchers - they both make 30 starts...one is 15-5 with a 4.50 ERA a 1.50 WHIP... that guy was not a BETTER PITCHER than a guy 10-10 with a 3.00 and a 1.00 WHIP. Lets look at this year...Johan Santana has a 2.91 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP...but a 7-6 win loss record. Are you telling me Jeff Suppan and his ERA of 4.70 is just as good. They both has 7 wins. Randy Wolf and his ERA of 4.25, hes better than Santana?? I mean, he does has 8 wins.

Answer 1

You are close. It's his WHIP that determines his era and not the other way around.

In order to have an era must give up hits or walks and both effect the WHIP first. Only earned runs scored affect his era.

Answer 2

I agree completely that win-loss record tells you nothing, since it can't take into account run support, the efforts of your team's bullpen after you've left a game, etc.

ERA isn't perfect, of course, because that number is influenced to a certain degree by luck. McCracken's theory of DIPS went a long way to showing that pitchers don't exert a great deal of control on balls put in play, so the luck of whether those balls put in play go as outs or hits can influence both your ERA and WHIP.

I do value ERA and WHIP, even though both are imperfect. Along with those, I do believe strikeouts are an important factor because they cut down in balls in play, and therefore on the chances of those balls in play becoming hits. I'll also look at a pitcher's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) to see whether it's significantly higher or lower than the league average, which is likely to impact the other stats.

Overall, then, ERA and WHIP, even with their faults, are still the best ones to use.

Answer 3

pitchers don't "win" games! it is a team sport. teams win games. of course, if your pitcher gives up fewer runs than the opposing pitcher, your team has a much better chance of winning. i like the WHIP stat over the ERA to give the most comprehensive picture of a pitcher's effectiveness. both are good measuring sticks, but there is an argument for ERA being somewhat reliant on defense. a pitcher is totally responsible for walks and almost totally responsible for hits, but ERA is somewhat affected by poor defense even if no errors are recorded.

Answer 4

I agree, ERA first then WHIP second. WHIP is the new sexy stat, but I like ERA better because it takes into account a pitcher's ability to get out of trouble. Win-Loss record is less meaningful, and strikeouts hardly mean anything to me.

Answer 5

Among all the pitching stats, strikeout to walk ratio and batting average against are two of the most looked at stats by professional scouts. An amateur's BA against stat might not be as relevant when compared to a big league pitcher, but the K/BB ratio is always a good indicator.

Answer 6

Among the widely-available stats, ERA tells us the most. WHIP is a close second but is still gaining acceptance and distribution.

My favorite pitcher metrics to look at:
ERA
WHIP (or the per nine innings version)
K, BB, and K:BB ratio
innings pitched
Opponents' OBP and SLG (and AVG, since it's always hanging around the other two)
Run support
Game scores for starters (which are hard to find, so I calculate them myself)

Answer 7

2. Attitude 1. ERA

Answer 8

WALKS! a pitcher can have a very low era but still have a large amount of walks!

Answer 9

Wins.
It's all about the wins, right? If you aren't playing to win, don't even bother keeping score. Those other stats are nice to have and all, but they're really just window dressing.
Wins is the ultimate measure of how good a guy is. Nothing else matters. . . .

No, YOU don't get it, punk! If wins are not the measure of the player, then why is he in there? Wrap your brain cell around that one for a while. . . .

Answer 10

ERA