What do you think about the Chaos Theory?

Question

We have all heard of the butterfly effect- "A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil will cause a monsoon in Asia--Dr. Lorenz." The chaos theory states that little changes in the input of a system can result in big changes over time in the output. For example, weather is completely random and unpredictable past 48 hours. After 48 hours the accuracy of forecasts drops over 90%, which means that 5 or 7 or 10 day forecasts are USELESS! I tend to live my entire life on this theory believing more that what we do at that moment influences what happens in the next moment. I believe more in this then destiny, because I think we all have control over what happens next based on what we do now. I don't like the idea of something beign planned out and waiting for me--I make my own out come. What do you think?

Answer 1

Have you seen the movie The Butterfly Effect, starring Ashton Kutcher and Amy Smart? It's an excellent film, if you understand the whole concept of the chaos theory. That film is precisely what I thought of when I read your question. So from my understanding, you are saying that we can, in a way, change whatever course, or end result, that may have been laid out for us at birth? Hm... well I do believe you should see the film and watch one of the documentaries afterwords. I don't think you'll regret it.

Answer 2

Chaos theory is based on the idea of unpredictability but I believe you're drawing the wrong conclusions. I've never been anywhere near good enough at differential equations to understand a lot of the math behind it. But being unpredictable does not mean completely random.

Using your weather analogy, if a forecast says a rain system is on it's way in 5 days....often time it's 4 or 6 days away, therefore making the prediction "wrong". A hurricaine takes weeks to make it across the ocean and is highly predictable.

My interpretation is essentially just how statistics apply to everyday life. (68% of within one deviation) and things like that. Of course nobody knows the future, but chaos theory doesn't say we shouldn't be guessing.

Answer 3

1.Weather reporting is one hellofa lot better than you
credit. - Five day forecasts are pretty accurate now.
2. You mis-state the 'butterfly theory.
"A butterfly flapping its wings...............
CAN cause a storm given only that numberless other condtitions are met. The storm results from some small initial disturbance in the atmosphere in the 'generative` area.
The system is so complex that finding the particular butterfly remains problematical, and if not that particular one, any disturbance in the appropriate
area would do it if all the other conditions are met.