It's summer, and with summer come the annual raffles for various goods and services. Here is my question: Let's say we sell 500 tickets to win a Harley. 2nd prize is $500, 1st prize is $1000, and grand prize is a new Harley. One of the people in my club said we should draw the GRAND prize first so that everyone has an equal chance of winning (no winning tickets are returned to the pot in our drawing). I think it makes no difference. 1/500 to win 2nd place, 1/499 to win 1st place, 1/498 to win Grand. Odds of winning grand are dependent upon NOT winning the 2nd or 1st prize, but shouldn't it still total to 1/500???? IE- does the order drawn increase, decrease, or not affect the odds of winning the bike??? Thanks!!
2007-06-20 13:48:33 · 3 answers · asked by Anonymous in Science & Mathematics ➔ Mathematics
You are correct. The odds for the grand prize, if drawn first, is simply 1/500. If drawn last, you have to get through the first two drawings: Odds of not getting the $500 prize is 499/500, then odds of NOT getting $1000 is 498/499, then odds of getting the harley is 1/498. So we multiply these probabilities together to get:
499/500 times 498/499 times 1/498, which equals 1/500, the same thing as picking harley first. So it doesnt matter.
2007-06-20 13:58:06 · answer #1 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 0⤋
Suppose 3 tickets are drawn at random without showing anybody the contents, and one is marked "1st prize", another "2nd prize", and still another "Grand prize". Then the tickets are read. Now, how does it make any difference which ticket is marked what? Drawing and reading the tickets one at a time makes no difference at all either. As WraitH says, it's just showbiz, maybe they want nobody to feel like they're going to be shut out of the grand prize, which will happen once either the 1st or 2nd prizes are announced.
2007-06-20 20:53:34 · answer #2 · answered by Scythian1950 7 · 1⤊ 0⤋
it's exactly as u said each time someone wins your chances increase by 1 to win one of the next prizes but to actually win the harley you have to not win a prize that has been taken before so maybe winning 500$ was a curse for someone that one wished for a harley... picking the most expensive first seems the best way but because it's showbiz it will always be chosen last to keep up the "tension"
2007-06-20 20:53:33 · answer #3 · answered by WraitH 3 · 0⤊ 1⤋