Anyone agree that the odds are against the hitter getting on base when swinging at 3-0 and 3-1?

Question

I have been watching this very closely this year. Especially with the Texas Rangers. I don't understand why, when the team needs base runners the manager allows the hitter to swing at 3-0 and 3-1. Most of the time they will make an out. I believe there is a better chance of the pitcher throwing a ball out of the next three pitches. I say take 3 except when a man is on second and there is one out. No need setting up for a double play.

Answer 1

Yes - but then, the odds are *always* against a hitter getting on base. The best hitters have a batting average in the mid-.300s (i.e., cause an out at least 65% of the time when swinging), and OBP in th the low-to-mid .400s (get an out about 55+% of the time).

Answer 2

There is no straight answer to this question. Some people call the 3-0 pitch the "automatic" because, in theory, you shouldn't swing at it as it may be a ball and ends up being an automatic strike (usually fastball) right down the middle. But using the same analysis, you may as well swing at it as you have good chances to score a big hit.

At the end of the day, it is the mental game that counts. At 3-0 or 3-1 the batter has the mental advantage and he will need to make a good call to force the pitcher to throw a ball when trying to score a good strike. If the batter swings wildly he is giving back the edge to the pitcher. If he swings smartly the pitcher is going to be more nervous on the next one. Obviously, if he doesn't swing at all he is leaving it to the pitcher to make a mistake and most decent pitchers rarely do that.

I'd say, don't just take strikes. As a batter, play to your advantage and at 3-0 or 3-1 you should make the call if you want to swing or not.

Answer 3

No I don't , I think that the odds actually favor the hitter. Over the years I have seen countless 3-0 fastballs thrown down Broadway that hitters stood and stupidly watched go by because they were told never to swing at 3-0.
The pitchers know about the axiom too so they just throw it over the plate, secure in the knowledge that it won't be swung at.
Next time you watch a game , count how many 3-0 pitches are fastballs over the middle of the plate.
Maybe Ron Washington saw that too and told his guys to swing at 3-0. The fact that his guys couldn't execute does not in and of itself make it a bad decision.

Answer 4

No. You are dumb. Swinging at a 3-0 pitch is usually a bad idea unless you got a great hitter up there. But 3-0 and 3-1 is when you get the best pitches to hit, so unless you got a weak hitter up he should definantly be swinging 3-1

Answer 5

While those above me are correct in that the hitter will get a good, hittable pitch on 3-0, I have seen too many times where the hitter pops that pitch up. In doing so, he allows the opposing pitcher to get away with his wildness.

Why let the pitcher off the hook?

Answer 6

No, 3-0 and 3-1 and good times to hit. I don't know what you've been watching this year but I've seen plenty of good hits come from 3-0 and 3-1. Some walks as well. So, the odds are usually with the batter to get on base either by walk or by hit.

Answer 7

those are the best odds a hitter is going to get, but you can't expect the hitters to bat .500 with those counts.

i do like hitters to take a strike on 3-1 counts with runners on because the runners can take off on the pitch with 3-2 counts.

Answer 8

A) Brian McCann has hit various slams as a Braves. i'm thoroughly confient. He might want to have one this twelve months, inspite of the indisputable fact that the pitch before the only he hit out replaced right into a wild pitch, and the runner on third scored. Then he knocked it out of the park. even as the Braves were taking section in the playing cards, he doubled off the wall with the bases loaded.

Answer 9

Don't agree.

Pitcher needs to offer up a good strike with little movement. Makes it easier to hit. I think stats would prove it.

We don't pay high ticket prices to watch a hitter take three hoping for a walk.

Answer 10

Those are the best counts for a hitter to get on base.

Generally you'll get a fastball, since the pitcher is trying not to walk you.
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