Do you think Ken Griffey Jr. would've had a shot at the HR record, without all his injuries??

Question

nice comments so far...

Cincy is a hitters ballpark, only 328 and 326 to the the corners....maybe he could make a push for the record...wherever bonds might set the record(with roids or not)?

Answer 1

I think yes but I think it would be closer than you think.
He had 438 HR's over his first 12 years. This is 36.5 HR's per year. Over the next 6 years he only averaged 20.8333.
One year accounting for most of his HR's in 05 when he had 35 HR's.
If he would have stayed healthy and averaged 36.5 HR's over those 6 years he would have 657 HR's at the age of 38. This year he already has 12 HR's. we are about 1/3 the way through the year which if you average that out he would have 36 HR's. This would make hime have 693 HR's. He would then only be 62 HR's behind at the age of 39.
Which means he would have to average 31.5 over 2 years or 21 over 3 years to break the record
But that is the thing about life, not everything goes right. There are things in life that set you back.
Not to mention in 94 and 95 he did not play full seasons.
Having 40 hrs in 94 and 17 in 95.

Answer 2

he may have already broken Aarons record. What makes you think that he still can't get it? 1/3 thru this year he has 12, if he doesn't get hurt he could easily be at 600 at the end of the year. he 5 years younger then bonds, if he stays healthy and hits 35 a year(which is below his average when healthy) he will be at 775 in 5 more years. If you look at the history of Sluggers, most have an increase in the late 30's early 40's Aaron, Ruth, both hit less batting ave, but more homers late in there careers(Bonds and big Mac did too) So he might make 800, Bonds isn't doing good this year since he's off the roids, and at current rate won't make 800 even if he plays next year.

Answer 3

Yes, and it would have been a good chance at it. But this was not to be.

A year ago, maybe two, I did a straight linear projection for Griffey, using his real HR/PA rates for his injury-plaqued Reds years (even bumped him up that one year that was a total disaster) and gave him back his DL time from 1989 and 1995 (didn't compensate for the 1994-95 strike though, that happened to everyone). That put him, at the time (figure 2005) somewhere around 680 homers. Nice thought, isn't it?

I'm not yet convinced he'll reach 600, the way his medical records have piled up these past few years. If he gets to 595 I'll think better of his chances.

Answer 4

Yes, before he signed with the Reds in 2000 baseball writers were already starting to project his home run numbers over his career and asking if he'd pass Hank Aaron. Even with all the injuries he'll still hit 600 homers.

Imagine how many home runs Mickey Mantle and Ken Griffey Jr. would have wound up with if they hadn't been injured so much. They are the biggest "what if" cases in MLB history.

Answer 5

I think the injuries he has sustained are just a mere backdrop to the real issue with Griffey Jr. His character and work ethic has been in question for years. His talent and athletic ability has always been second to none, but it's his work ethic that has always kept him from ultimate stardom. Injuries is just a cop-out, almost every MLB player has gone through their fair share of injuries whether we hear about them or not, so that is no excuse. If you matched Griffey Jr.'s talent and athletic ability with the desire and work ethic of someone like an Eric Byrnes for example, the HR record may already be his. Don't let the lines about "injuries" fool you, it is what is sitting on his shoulders that has kept him from baseball immortality.

Answer 6

Yes, he would have a great shot. If you check out is overall stats he has probably missed about 300-350 games due to injury. He would probably would have about 80 +more HR's
and 300+ more hits. He is still only 37 years old and as least 3 more years. If he decides to go back to the A.L. he can become a D.H. and extend his career without the chance
of further injury. No matter what he is a HOFamer

Answer 7

Definitely. Looking at his stats, if he had average years in 1995 and 2001-04, he'd probably be at 650 now at a minimum. Assume a move back to the AL to extend his career and it's a real possibility.

I do wonder if the move to the Reds has hurt him, outside of injuries. He's not had too much protection in the lineup outside of Adam Dunn, who strikes out enough that he's not that much protection. Much easier to pitch around Junior now than when he was with the Mariners and had Buhner, A Rod and Edgar Martinez in the line up.

Answer 8

If you remove his rookie year and his first injury year with only 17 home runs he was on pace for the mid-700 HR area. So with out injuries he had a very good chance at being the all tiem HR record holder.

Answer 9

I think Griffey Jr. has the most perfect baseball swing of all time. If it were not for his injuries, we wouldn't even have to worry about that cheater breaking Hammerin' Hanks record because Griffey would already have it. Great question!!!

Answer 10

No question. As it turns out, going to Cincinnati turned out to be a bad career move. He never had injuries like that in Seattle. They MAY have happened anyway-or not. Anyway, yeah, he lost all those games, and he STILL passed Harmon Killebrew on the all-time list, so that tells you something right there.