Are the GOP Polls truly accurate?

Question

I have been traveling the country watching the presidential primary very closely. i have never seen such vast participation from the young voters in recent memory. i feel as though the polls dont represent an accurate percentage of who is leading and vice versa since many young adults are not exactly contributing to the poll data that they accumulate. many of them are in college and doing other things. specifically, im talking about the chase for the democratic nomination. there is an enormous support base for senator obama from these young voters and veterans voters alike and for that reason i dont see how clinton would still be in the lead. maybe someone knows something we do not, maybe obama supporters are so confident they may not vote for him, who knows? personally i feel that might be a stretch..case in point: every vote matters so i hope if youre able to vote, go out and make sure you do so when the time comes. when its all said and done, i think obama will surprise many people.

i personally think its fabulous the young voters have been sparked by interest. we are the next generation and will play a big role in not only this world but in this particular election.

Answer 1

No poll is truly accurate. in order for a poll to be truly accurate, they have to ask every eligible person. That's what elections are for, not polls.

Answer 2

Despite what others have said, polls regarding candidate strength are accurate within a certain degree at a certain point in time. Pollsters are aware of the problem that you describe and adjust for differences between the demographics of the sample and national demographics. While candidate polls tend to be accurate, questions regarding opinions on issues are harder to pin down because how the options are phrased effects the results.

The problem is that polls are designed to get an answer. People do not like to say that they do not know who they support. Thus, polls this far out from the election are considered by insiders to be fluid. In other words, if you ask me who I am supporting I will give you an answer. However, unless I am a political junkie, I only know a little about the candidates right now. As I learn more, I might decide to change my mind and support someone else.

As polls get closer to elections, people have formed more definite opinions about the candidates and who they will support. Most polls taken just before the election (once you adjust for the small number of undecideds) tend to be within their margin of error of the actual election results.

Answer 3

The national polls have been historically accurate. They state their margin of error, it is very likely that at present, May 28, 2007, being so early in the election campaigns, those polls will tend to be less accurate than lets say in the last 2 weeks before an election. Why? because the pollsters know, they are not going to be held accountable, and also because voters have not made up their minds with certainty.
About the polls that are commissioned by the candidates themselves, we have no idea what is going on.

Answer 4

Well this time its their azz on the line so maybe they will vote instead of stay home. Or am I the only one who has noticed that we really need more troops than we are getting with a volunteer army, and if another Republican bunch gets in a draft is inevitable.
Polls are weighted and the factors are considered, they are usually accurate within the percentages they give.
Some of those weightings go to accounting for the fact that even likely young voters don't vote, and the fact that wanting to appear more open minded, some people will say they will vote for Obama when they might prefer another candidate.
That, and the fact that you might be in a pocket of strong support may influence you to your point of view.

Answer 5

Polls are not remotely accurate and to put stock in them is foolish at best. Look at the sampling size, ridiculously low relative to the population.

The most amazing thing about this is the number of democrat politicians who have full time pollsters on their campaign staffs, they are using the polls to find a way to lie and cheat the voters so they can get elected. Really, really sad.

If you are remotely interested in trying to decipher the truth from these polls read the attached article.

Answer 6

I never liked polls because they are loaded. Democratic and Republican pollsters work up questions that will generate a specific response. Yes or No. most likely or least likely Most proper answer are in a gray area that is never questioned. I am hoping for a decent Third party.. Most of the current candidates on either side are no more that egomaniac demagogues. IMHO GOP Polls or Dem Polls.. always scew the data to fit a specified position.

Answer 7

Polls would be pointless if they weren't accurate within the range they claim. You may see a lot of support among young people for Obama, but oddly, at election time, younger voters have a poor turnout.

Answer 8

Young voters are the aggressive participants in polls and it shows in the results. Thus, Obama is being favored because of the youth votes in the polls.

VOTE for your choice as US President on my 360 degrees blog and know if Obama will likely win.

Answer 9

i might vote for him in a 2nd. i'm ill of those potential-hungry politicians, and that i'm additionally ill of watching my technology be coddled time and time back, for as quickly as i might prefer to verify somebody end the bullshit. not one of the different GOP applicants can end the bullshit. And Obama has shown he can't end the bullshit. Herman Cain is the perfect individual to step as much as the plate throughout a time whilst human beings have extra of s fake experience of entitlement than the different time in historic past that i will think of of.

Answer 10

Marketing polls are usually inaccurate. I say this with a probability of 85%