Have you heard predictions for a collision courses with our moon? What if XF11 missed us but hit the moon?

Question

Asteroid 1997 XF11 will pass well beyond the Moon's distance from Earth in October 2028
Worrisome to asteroid watchers is the exceptionally close flyby of Earth by Apophis on April 13, 2029. So close in fact, the space rock will be naked-eye visible as it darts by. And what can't be ruled out at this time is that Apophis may pass through a gravitational "keyhole" - a spot that alters the asteroid's trajectory as it zips by our planet and might put it on the bee-line lane for banging into Earth seven years later.

Is an asteroid really coming to hit the Earth and cause an ‘extinction level event’, similar to that which wiped out the dinosaurs? Scientists say it just might happen, with an Asteroid called Apophis having a 1 in 45,000 chance of impact.

I really wish people could look past the numbers and address the questions. The statement has very little relavance in the questions.

I truley do not have answers for my posted questions. I posted them hoping for a response.

Answer 1

Several larger asteroid impacts could potentially move the moon very slightly in it's orbit, although there are no objects large enough to move the moon so far out of it's current path that it would crash into the earth in anything less than several hundred million years. The moon is currently moving away at a rate of just under 4cm every year (1.5in), the very most an asteroid could possibly do would be to reduce that rate by the smallest margin. Also, if the moon did collide with the earth, the earth would bend and flex towards the moon, land would probably split and crack, the tides would go out of control, things would go crazy, but no, the world would not resemble the avatar world in any way - the moon doesn't produce enough gravity to counteract the gravity of the earth. The moon also has relatively minimal magnetic presence, so it wouldn't affect the earth's magnetic field. Changes in gravity would affect tidal activity and air density, which would in turn have massive impacts on the weather, but the magnetic field would remain intact. Basically - world is cracking and splitting on the surface, the tide is rising and falling a huge amount (as in, hundreds of meters). Nothing is flying or floating as the moon's gravity is not sufficient to overcome the earth's, but the weather is DIFFERENT because of a change in climate (not necessarily firestorms, just things like snow in a desert).

Answer 2

It may be a worrysome point but the likely hood of that happening is very slim.
If there was a risk then i'm sure the relevent authorities have already looked at ways it can be averted.

Answer 3

If you crash while driving there will be one, may be two or three persons affected by it. If an asteroid hit a populated area, there will be thouthands of people affected by it.

People can play with numbers all they want, statistics can be taylor to suit any point of view.

Answer 4

1 chance in 45,000 is pretty small. You take a bigger risk every time you get into a car. But you probably don't think twice about that, do you?

People are funny about risk. They see unusual things, and think how dangerous it is. But the activities with much greater chances of injury or death get ignored routinely.