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2007-05-19 03:24:08 · 5 answers · asked by az_sooner 1 in Business & Finance Investing

5 answers

There are seasonal things. There are boring things. But to look for things that merely yoyo in a fairly narrow channel is a sort of dangerous tack to take.

In your brokerage research screens, look for something that has a fairly small 52-week high/low range and check for Beta statistics. I'm thinking the high volatility stocks are out of bounds. Boring banks and grocers might be worth checking for consistent trends.

Part of the problem is stockholder activism. You get some Boone Pickens on your trail for a hohum service tech, or a Carl Icahn in a more consumer products company, and they will shake the tree. Managers will be envigorated to innovate. Merger opportunities will arise and your dynamic changes. If they flop and you are on a traditional up cycle, you're toast. If you've shorted or held back because the next reiteration of a down turn doesn't materialize because your wallflower company suddenly became the next big thing in how they handled things, you are sunk.

Getting lulled into a cyclic complacency have cost me enough in actual losses and opportunities lost that I could have paid off my mortgage. It is the stuff of 'jumping in a falling elevator in hopes you will be going up when it hits bottom' or betting black in roulette because the last two balls landed on a red number. Sometimes you win and think you are a genius. Then you will lose and remember what an idiot you really are.

Good luck with your hunting, but complacency and discovering a "win everytime" strategy from it will find your strategy biting your rear end when you least expect it.

2007-05-19 03:47:53 · answer #1 · answered by Rabbit 7 · 0 0

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