Did you know that a meteor could impact the planet Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029?

Question

What do you think? Is this the end?

Answer 1

But . . . but . . .that couldn't possibly happen! The ancient Aztec calendar predicts that the earth will be destroyed on April 21, 2012!!!

Or an undiscovered one could hit us tomorrow, and we'd be able to do absolutely nothing about it.

I'm so tired of all these silly questions about the end of the world. ;^) Live for today, folks! Until we come up with some meteor blaster, we couldn't stop a hit if we wanted to, and all you're doing is giving yourself an ulcer with all your frettin'.

Answer 2

I believe the object you are refering to is (99942) Apophis (formerly known as 2004 MN4). Based on optical astrometric data and several radar ranging experiements covering a total observational arc of around 1000 days it is predicted to pass Earth on Friday April 13 2029 at a distance of about 36,000 km with an uncertainty of around 5,000 km. There was a time, in late December 2004, when it appeared that the chance of an impact was as high as 1 in 37 but the first radar data in January 2005 narrowed the uncertainty in the prediction to essentially what I wrote above. Subsequent data has continued to narrow the uncertainty (I confess that I'm not actually sure of the correct size of the uncertainty at present but I believe the 36,000 km distance is still correct.)

There is still the possibility that during the 2029 close approach Apophis will pass through a small region of near-earth space at just the right time which will bend its orbit in just the right way to bring it back to the Earth for a collision in 2036. Odds for this are presently estimated at 1 in 45,000. The region of space is quite small, only a few kilometers I believe. The central value of the prediction is quite some distance from the region in question but if you include the uncertainties the prediction becomes a larger region in space and now includes the particular 2036 "keyhole" region. The next opportunity for good tracking data is in 2012 and 2013.

Some people have mentioned a 1 in 300 probability. The 2029 pass of Apophis was first alerted at about this probability but it is also a probability estimate for an impact by (29075) 1950 DA in the year 2880. This particular object has tracking data stretching back 50 years and investigations of its orbit using computers have shown that the uncertainty tends to oscillate rather than simply grow larger with time. This means that its position can be predicted quite accurately for a considerable distance into the future. It is only after some close passes in the 2800s that the uncertainty really starts to grow.

Apophis is believed to have a diameter of about 270 meters. The general feeling is that this would be quite a big bang and could well devastate the continental US for example were it to strike there. An ocean impact would probably cause a very large tsunami. It would not, however, be the end of the world, at least of itself, I'm not about to try and predict what the world would be like during and after such a disaster recovery effort. 1950 DA however is about 1000 meters across and is getting to the size where the effects are predicted to be global in scale. Again, it would flatten the country/region where it struck but it would also likely throw a lot of dust high into the atmosphere which would then affect sunlight, crop production and so on.

Answer 3

The following is from a respected physics website:

"A recently rediscovered 400-meter Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) is predicted to pass near the Earth on 13 April 2029. The flyby distance is uncertain and an Earth impact cannot yet be ruled out. The odds of impact, presently around 1 in 300, are unusual enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers, but should not be of public concern. These odds are likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data are received. In all likelihood, the possibility of impact will eventually be eliminated as the asteroid continues to be tracked by astronomers around the world."

You can read more at the link below.

"

Answer 4

We know of that one and many more that could also impact Earth, but we are not sure of it, at least, not until we are closer to the date so we can measure more accurately the possibility of an impact.

Small meteors like that one can not destroy us, but could do big damage if it hits in a populated area or close to it as it will probably create a big explosion. It also depends on the composition and the angle it hits Earth.

On the other hand, technology is growing exponentially, so in 20 years from now we could have some good weapons available for defense, not for war, but to defende ourselves against space treats like that one. Those weapons could be from big nuclear weapons to destroy the meteor, to smaller ones that could just change the orbit into a safe one that will not get in our way. Or we could develop other techniques to change the orbit that we haven;t6 even though about yet. It will also depend on the size of the meteor again.

Our real problem is not those, but “surprise” meteors that we don’t know about. Those could happen anytime, and we could not be prepared for it. A precise collision between two or three big meteor in the asteroid ring around the Sun (between Mars and Jupiter) could send and big one in direct collision with Earth, and we would have only a couple of years or less to figure out what to do.

Hopefully, statistics are right and we do have time and we will be able to defend our planet against those in the near future.

Answer 5

Here's a list of risky near-earth orbiting objects:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

That's just the list of things we know about. It does not include risk from objects we haven't seen. The earth gets hit every day by some type of object from space. Most are small. Every once in a while something big comes down and impacts earth. It's not a question of if, but when. I doubt anything will be "the end". The earth has survived 4.5 billion years and still has water, an atmosphere, and life. But there could be a big impact that causes lots of damage.

Answer 6

Meteors fall on earth all of the time: 17 lots an afternoon! 2012 isn't any different that the different year. perhaps the e book substitute into speaking approximately an asteroid r a comet, plenty bigger bodies than the common meteoroid. if so, the e book substitute into in errors: no valid source has envisioned any impacts of asteroids or comets, the two in 2012 or any year sooner or later. there is often the possibility of a random asteroid being got here upon it is on a collision trajectory, yet NASA those days introduced that their survey of close to Earth products is nearing of completion, so as that this state of affairs isn't likely. merely simply by fact something substitute into written in an previous e book would not advise that that is genuine.

Answer 7

Did you know that all the Honey bees are disappearing at an alarming rate!!! The weather is changing , We are in a war that we can't possibly win and you're worried about a meteor twenty years from now , there wont be no earth twenty years from now , well there will be a Earth we just won't be here!

Answer 8

Meteors impact the Earth every year...we just don't hear about a lot of them because of small size or landing in oceans.

Answer 9

Nah, It seems far to unlikely that they can predict something like that that accurately.

Earth is tiny in the vastness of space, why would a metior kill us on the 13th April 2029?

Also how can they predict that??

Seems like rubish to me.

Answer 10

Actually, most scientists say that the chance of impact is 1 in 300. To ease your fears, here is a link to the Space.com article about this asteroid:
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html