Is the divorce rate really about 50%?

Question

I have heard this statistic for decades. But I also heard once that this figure was arrived at by comparing the number of marriages performed each year to the number of divorces granted during the same year. Seems to me that that would be a severely flawed methodology, since it leaves out all the people who were married before that year and remained married afterwards. It looks at beginnings and endings, but of different marriages.

It seems to me that a better way to do this is just to follow a representative number of marriages and see how long each of them lasts.

So how do they arrive at the statistic? And is it really 50%?

I'm including this in law because the question is relevant to some questions and answers here. Thanks.

Answer 1

PROJECTION/PREDICTION. This is the Census Bureau's often-cited "50%" rate, the proportion of marriages taking place right now that will eventually divorce, which has since been revised downward to roughly 43% by the National Center for Health Statistics but was moved back up to around 50% by the Census Bureau in 2002, with even more ifs ands and buts than usual. Most recently, according to the New York Times, it has been revised downward to just over 40%.

One of the best explanations of what is an accurate prediction for this statistic, and of the limits of divorce statistics, is an April, 2005 New York Times article, "Divorce Rate: It's Not as High as You Think."

This kind of thing is probably the best estimate statisticians can come up with, but it is only a prediction of how many people currently entering their first marriages will ever get divorced. It is a very rough estimate even if current trends continue unchanged, but it is also subject to change if divorce becomes more or less popular or available. For a more detailed exploration of the nature of this and other divorce rates, see messages on "Divorce Statistics and Interpretation" by Scott Stanley and Paul Amato, November, 1998

Here is an excerpt from the Census Bureau report, with a link to the full report:

"The National Center for Health Statistics recently released a report which found that 43
percent of first marriages end in separation or divorce within 15 years. The study is based on
the National Survey of Family Growth, a nationally representative sample of women age 15 to
44 in 1995. Bramlett, Matthew and William Mosher. "First marriage dissolution, divorce, and
remariage: United States," Advance Data From Vital and Health Statistics; No.323. Hyattsville
MD: National Center for Health Statistics: 2 1.

"Data in the Census report were collected from both men and women, age 15 and over, and a
different methodology was used than in the NCHS report.

"About 50% of first marriages for men under age 45 may end in
divorce, and between 44 and 52% of women's first marriages
may end in divorce for these age groups. The likelihood of a divorce
is lowest for men and women age 60, for whom 36 % of men
and 32 percent of women may divorce from their first marriage by
the end of their lives. A similar statistical exercise was performed in
1975 using marital history data from the Current Population Survey
(CPS). Projections based on those data implied that about one-third of
married persons who were 25 to 35 years old in 1975 would end their
first marriage in divorce.

"This cohort of people, who in 1996 were about 45 to 55 years old, had
already exceeded these projections as about 40% of men and
women in these ages had divorced from their first marriage. Current
projections now indicate that the proportion could be as high as
50% for persons now in their early forties."

Answer 2

The statistics are not gathered the way you said. The 50% number is the percentage of marriages that end in divorce within 5 years. The divorces and marriages are the same people in the statistical sample, not different people.

Answer 3

Yes, it is determined from the number of marriages performed vs. the number of divorces granted during the year. It does not take into account people who divorce over and over, which can really skew the results. Remember, it is a rate. When you actually count up the numbers, pretty much 65-70% of folks have never been divorced. Eventually, though as the older folks die off, it will fall to about 60%.

Answer 4

Close but not really 50%. But if you just look around it is not odd to find kids who refer to parents as their stepmother/father. Or who's parents are divorced.

Answer 5

No, it is about 40% and has been declining for about 10 yrs.

Answer 6

it is closer to 45% nationally.
the exact average depends on the state.

Answer 7

Idk it may be true but what they dont tell you is that the other half end in death!! I think I will take my chances with the divorce !

Answer 8

http://www.divorcerate.org/
http://www.divorcereform.org/rates.html
http://www.religioustolerance.org/chr_dira.htm
http://www.divorcemag.com/statistics/statsUS.shtml