Do people know what sample bias means?

Question

I suspect a certain group of political types do not.

"Newsweek publishe[d] a breathless account of how [] Bush's approval rating has dropped to 28% [&] how leading Dem[] contenders now outpoll the Repub[s] across the board for the 2008 [] race. Coincidence[?]"

"Well, for one thing, it helps when you poll 50% more Democrats than Republicans."

So, do people understand this at all? Do they ever take the time to consider them when spouting off "20%ers? Further, does it make them nervous when Congress' approval ratings are in the 30s, despite sample bias in their favor? Do they realize low approval ratings don't necessary translate into votes (i.e. one can be disapproving of one's own party, yet still unwilling to vote for the other party).

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/009895.php

Answer 1

That poll was a random sample of 1,000 Americans. In other words, the probability that it fell outside of the standard error for a sample that size to make it statistically significant is extremely small.
You yourself don't have a complete understanding of what sample bias is. Keep studying.

Answer 2

Have you just started in statistics? When the people you call are based on a random number generator it adds to the credibility.. as does averaging all of the polls out there.. the more data the better... and most of them look pretty bad for Mr. Bush and good for the Democrats. Yes, that one poll is just 1,000 people.. but there are so many more. statistically ... when you look at all polls... there is no doubt that if the elections were today the Democrats would win in a land slide.... it can be inferred that this is due to Bush's low approval ratings.. but technically you can only say that they are correlated.


I would ask you this.. if people were going to falsify the polls or pick and choose to get better number.. don't you think people would do it for the Republicans as well? While there will be some margin of error average them all and you have a pretty sound idea of the truth.

Answer 3

Your source is a blog,ie; an opinion.
But the FACT of the matter is people should take that displeasure with them in the voting booth and vote out the two party strangle hold that keeps America from moving forward on so many fronts.

How is it possible that no Democrat has yet to introduce articles of impeachment against George W. Bush? Why not? Consider the website www.democrats.com who call themselves the "Patriotic Progressives". The website calls for the impeachment of Bush. It lists all sorts of books on the great tragedy of this administration that one can buy. It calls for impeachment. Good. Yet, there are no articles of impeachment from the Democrats in Congress. Perhaps, impeachment is being saved for a third Bush term? A failsafe position or Plan B if Democrats lose the election. Never mind that this administration has trampled the Constitution. They did so with Democratic Party blessing including John Kerry who voted for the war. Thank you Democrats for unconstitutionally transferring war making rights to the executive branch. Thank you Democrats for voting to fund an illegal war under false pretenses. Thank you Democrats for passing the PATRIOT Act without close scrutiny. After giving this administration just about everything it wanted for 3 years, finally, in the year 2004, the Democratic Party grew a small spine and acquired a little courage. Reason? 2004 is an election year. So what does it take to impeach Bush? Perhaps, a stain on an intern's dress.

Answer 4

pip - I'm a political scientist, I deal with stats all the time. I have hours of training in stats, I have years of experience. Nobody produces "statistics" without an agenda. It's so easy to skew your results and very hard not to. Opinion polls are the worst (most unscientific) statistics. They even use scientific jargon like "margin of error" to try to convince people that they have meaning. A statistical margin of error is based on the sample size. The larger the number of respondents, the smaller the so-called margin of error. But if you "randomly" select phone numbers with an area code in NYC or LA, you have skewed the result but you can claim a low "margin of error."
As for republicans getting the same treatment, who would publish them? There are countless scientific stats that show clearly that Republican ideas are working, but instead we are fed useless unscientific opinion polls. If you message is truth, you don't need opinion polls.

Answer 5

A sample obtained by a procedure that incorporates a systematic error introduced by taking items from a wrong population or by favoring some elements of a population.

Answer 6

I get what you're saying, but there's no way in hades that you will convince anyone who really believes strongly in their side. People have a tendency to put faith in the things that support their view, and they'll do the same with this information. They feel so strongly that Bush is evil, so he is.

Unfortunately, that's the level of thinking that goes on these days, and Democrats are taking advantage of it.

For example, look at the Democrats in the running for President. Practically all of them say that their biggest mistake was that they trusted Bush about Iraq. Informed people know that Congress does not just "take the word" of the President, much less a President with an opposing ideology. If they DID just trust one man on his opinion of the situation in Iraq, it borders on mental retardation. But that's not the way it happened...they all reviewed the intelligence reports and came to a conclusion that there was a legitimate threat. It wasn't like Bush took a trip to Iraq for a couple months then came back with all of this news about WMD's and Congress just trusted his judgment.

Yet that is exaclty what they expect us to believe. Pretty sinister manipulation going on if you really think about it. Taking advantage of the majorities ignorance of the process and blatantly lying in order to clear themselves of any bad press and put the blame on someone else.

Answer 7

Keep listening to Rush,Ann,and BillO.Do not remember last November's election.Thank you for cooperating.

Answer 8

as you can see by the answers given this site is a prime example of a biased group..

further more most people don't understand what a biased pole is nor do the care as long as their view is reinforced.

truth can be very painful to the mindless followers
that is why news week and CNN ,stay away from facts or truth at all cost..

bush will get low marks from me because of his spending and his amnesty for illegals polices

Answer 9

For the same reason that people are so willing to be brain-washed instead of thinking for themselves.

Answer 10

Clinton had a 65% approval rating when he left office. Bush, well, abject failure hurts you at the polls, regardless of any potential sampling error here, mate.