If its true that most scientist's on Earth already know?

Question

That we will be hit by an asteroid in 2039,and they are even pretty sure where on the planet it will hit(Northern or Southern Hemisphere,which side of the dateline,etc)then why dont they just tell us and let us go build somewhere else? Are they hoping by that year we will have the knowledge to change its course?..Or are they just being selfish and telling only their close confidants and letting the rest of us swing to avoid"panic"?

Coast to Coast A.M.(radio) with George Nouri as the source..

Ive been hearing a lot about a close call we will be having in that year..its pretty common knowledge,they even have a number for the asteroid,its a near earth object...so why cant we just be told?...

Answer 1

What scientists know, is that there is a 1 in 45000 chance of the asteroid hitting. That means there is a 99.995 chance of it missing. Those are the facts as they are known. The asteroid is called Apophis, Look it up on the Internet, or use the Wiki link below, and make up your own mind. The asteroid is about 300 metres in diameter and will cause a lot of damage if it hits, but will not be large enough to wipe out life on Earth etc. If it lands in the ocean, which is about 75% of the Earth's surface, it will cause Tsunamis, if it lands in the middle of the Atlantic, the Tsunamis will cause a lot of damage to coastal areas of Africa, North and South America, Portugal, Ireland, Parts of the UK etc etc.
It will orbit many times between now and then. (It's orbit is 323 days). It is during the 2029 orbit that it may become unpredictable, because it passes very close to Earth, but still it is not likely to impact, that is where the 1 in 45000 chance comes into it.

Answer 2

It is hardly a secret that is being kept from you or anyone else. When asteroid 99942 Apophis was first discovered, there was initial concern about the possibility of a 2029 impact. This received widespread publicity.

However over 3 days at Christmas 2004 over 150 observations by teams of astronomers worldwide enabled the orbit to be recalculated and they were able to say confidently that it would miss.

However doom and disaster stories sell newspapers and boost TV ratings and running a sober piece saying "Panic Over! All clear now!" will do neither of those things. So the internet has been awash with old information about Apophis which scientists have long since rejected.

So it is not that scientists aren't telling the world the facts, the media are cooking up garbled versions of the facts and gullible people tend to swallow the disinformation as it is the most readily available to them.

Wikipedia writes:

"99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029.

Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036.

This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale.

As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million."

At those odds I am not going to lose any sleep over this. There are plans to monitor the asteroid in 2013 when it makes a near approach, by radar, to predict its orbit up to 2070 and beyond and plans to place a transmitter on the asteroid (a spy in the cab) so we can permanently track its path

Answer 3

Nobody knows.
There will always be hype about things like that.
The chance of calculating the path of an asteroid for over 30 years is virtually non existent.
Some thing else could come whizzing out of the blue in the next 20 years and take us completely by surprise.
Billy the scientist,so there.

Answer 4

odds are it is overblown. many times when an asteroid is first spotted many assume that it will hit the earth, and sometimes based on preliminary calculations it might seem as if there is a chance that it will. however of the times so far these asteroids have not hit the earth and later, more careful calculations with more data have shown that the asteroid will not even come close.

if there is such an asteroid coming we will hear of it. you cannot keep a secret like that for long, its impossible.

Answer 5

LOL George Nouri is the source? Why didn't you just list the National Enquirer? It's just as good.

Answer 6

labsci is correct. The impact probability is so low, that it is not possible to predict exactly where it MIGHT hit: 99.9978% chance that it will miss, 0.0022% chance that it will hit.

Checkout the uncertainly estimates in the second link.

Answer 7

Because the scientist know that by that time i'll be GONE.

Answer 8

Science is THEORY!!!!!

Anyone can come up with theory's.

Scientist are very intelligent.

They helped Al Gore come up with CO2 indulgences for the rich.

Thanks for the question.

Answer 9

So you are also a scientist .