Where is the United States economy currently located on the business cycle?

Question

Peak, trough/depression, recession, or recovery?

Answer 1

peak : Unemployment rates are low and long interest rates are higher than short ones (inverted yield curve) . Both are classic indicator of a peak with a slow down or recession in the next year.

Answer 2

What are you cheering for?

Business (stockmarket) is adventing on growth. The bulls are lining up at the gate, and will be moving soon. Since the Stockmarket is liquid ... recession/ growth is measured by 2 consecutive quarters (6 months) of a trend (down/ up).

Real Estate values will drop leaving disparity. A real estate depression is three consecutive years of foreclosures. We're in year 1 of high foreclosures ... this is because real estate is not liquid, and a hard asset to sell; plus it's tied to the bond market. It'll be interesting to see what the Freddie Mae & Genny Mae (government) agencies will be doing to alieve this pain.

Bonds (Debt) will experience a "Junk Bond" peak (like the 1980's) as the real estate market falls. After the peak, the bulls will charge into high growth for the stock market.

Answer 3

I'd probably say we are in a recovery/growth period. Depression and recession would probably be eliminated from categorization because our economy has been growing quite steadily for some time, unemployment has been on the decline, etc. I don't think we're necessarily at a 'peak' moment because there aren't really any factors that indicate slowed growth (aside from a few markets like housing)...

Considering that the Dow Jones Industrial has been closing at record levels for the last few weeks/months - I'd probably say we're recovering/growing right now.