Does anyone have a scenario about exactly how this "Iraq War" is going to play out in the end?

Question

From the looks of things it could go on and on until all the Shia kill all the Sunnies or vice versa!

And this could possibly mean forever!

Answer 1

Not to underestimate the history of religious tension, but i think the desperate poverty there is a bigger factor. Huge segments of the population are unemployed, and young men support families by working for the militias. The militias are headed by guys who want to control the oil exports... it's become a vicious circle where the violence won't stop till the economy improves, but the economy won't improve until the violence stops. I THINK that's what they mean when people argue for a diplomatic solution... trying to change it so the best paying jobs in Iraq AREN'T planting IEDs...

Answer 2

We don't care about controlling Iraq! This war is not at all what it seems. It will slowly peter out. Troops will withdraw until, in the end, we will "save face" by setting up a military base much like we did at the end of the Korean war. It's a HIGHLY important military location. And we need it at all costs. Before we had something going with Israel, but that's become too unstable by comparison. Forget "oil!" Our number one goal from the beginning, I'd put my life on it, was to procure a new base of operations in the Middle East.
So, my friend, relax. You will remember this post. When it happens just the way I know it will.

Answer 3

The outcome is going to be bad. Iraqis obviously can't function as a nation; tribes and clans have loyalty first.