In the sport of cricket, the Duckworth-Lewis method (D/L method) is a mathematical way to calculate the target score for the team batting second in a one-day cricket match interrupted by weather or other circumstance. It is generally accepted to be a fair and accurate method of setting a target score, but as it attempts to predict what would have happened had the game come to its natural conclusion, it generates some controversy. It is not used in first-class cricket or Test matches.
The D/L method was devised by two English statisticians, Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis. It was first used in international cricket in the second game of the 1996/7 Zimbabwe versus England One-Day International series, which Zimbabwe won by 7 runs, and was formally adopted by the International Cricket Council in 2001 as the standard method of calculating target scores in rain shortened one-day matches.
Previously, various different methods used to achieve the same task, including the use of run-rate ratios, the use of the score that the first team had achieved at the same point in their innings, and the use of targets derived by totalling the best scoring overs in the initial innings. All of these older methods have flaws that are easily exploitable. For example, run-rate ratios do not account for how many wickets the team batting second have lost, but simply reflect how quickly they were scoring at the point the match was interrupted; thus, if a team felt a rain stoppage was likely, they could attempt to force the scoring rate without regard for the corresponding highly likely loss of wickets, skewing the comparison with the first team. Notoriously, the "best-scoring overs" method, used in the 1992 Cricket World Cup, left the South African cricket team requiring 21 runs from one ball (when the maximum score from any one ball is generally six runs). Prior to a brief rain interruption, South Africa was chasing a target of 22 runs from 13 balls - which was difficult but at least attainable - but the possibility of an exciting conclusion to the game was destroyed when the team's target was reduced by only one run, to be scored off 12 fewer balls. The D/L method removes - or at least normalises - this flaw: in this match, the revised D/L target would have been four runs to tie or five to win from the final ball.
The D/L method is relatively simple to apply, but requires a published reference table and some simple mathematical calculation (or use of a computer). As with most non-trivial statistical derivations, however, the D/L method can produce results that are somewhat counterintuitive, and the announcement of the derived target score can provoke a good deal of second-guessing and discussion amongst the crowd at the cricket ground. This can also be seen as one of the method's successes, adding interest to a "slow" rain-affected day of play.
For more details, please check the following link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duckworth-Lewis_method
2007-04-30 16:56:54
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answer #1
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answered by vakayil k 7
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What an easy answer ...
.... NO ... I can't
but I'm not embarrassed to say that since no cricket commentator could do so either.
2007-04-28 17:02:59
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answer #2
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answered by wizebloke 7
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