How will the next influenza pandemic arise?

Question

the science behind it, answers will be greatly appreciated

Answer 1

One Can Envision Several Mechanisms, but for Very quick Spread, I Think Birds Will Have to Be Infected With a Strain Capable of Easy Human to Human Transmission.

Answer 2

It will arise when two conditions are met:
1. The strain is highly contagious between humans
2. The strain has a rapid and high mortality rate.

With regard to the Avian flu strain, only the second criterion has been met. If it mutates to become transmissible between humans, it may well be that the morbidity and mortality may also decrease.

You should also consider a few facts:
- the current immunisations may not protect against any mutated forms.
- any pandemic will arise in areas where animals and humans are in close personal contact with each other. Typically South East Asia, where people keep their livestock close to their living areas, and also living space is cramped.
- when it reaches a major city, the first to suffer will be those living in crowded areas such as shanty towns and slums, where many people share the same living and breathing space for extended periods.

So, there will be warning signs for other countries to prepare. But it may not help much, unless entire large serum factories concentrate solely on producing immunisation sera, because, by the time we know what strain it is, there will not be time to produce enough to protect everyone.

Answer 3

Most flu starts in the orient where farmers keep large quantities of different animals in close quarters. A flu that affects one species will hop to another and will also be a type that affects humans. Some of these flu's are called after the species in question like swine flu. If a pig flu or bird flu mutates in close quarters to humans it is possible that it will spread. If the humans are not used to this strain of flu it will hit them hard since they have no preprogrammed defense. The pandemic of 1918 was worse because not only was it a new flu but it was also a flu that caused the body to over react. The over reaction would kill the healthy in hours. Now that we know this there might be some treatments for flu's that cause people to over react. Since flu's start in Asia at the beginning of the flu season the US has several months to ID the trains and to create shots before it moves to the US. On any given year there will be many strains of flu and the CDC will put the worse ones into the shots. This means you can still catch one of the weaker strains or have a mild reaction to the shot.

Answer 4

Influenza pandemics follow a couple of years after an asteroid or meteor passes near the planet. The building blocks of DNA are delivered to a planet from the debris of close passing space bodies. These cause diseases. It takes a couple of years for the particles to get to earth. So, check when the next close fly by will be, and then about two years later there will be a pandemic.

I suppose bird flu is something to worry about, but there are still considerably more people dying from normal flu than there is bird flu. Personally, I don't even think about bird flu.

Answer 5

It is obviously a virus, transfered from human to human. However, origination can come from an animal, like a bird, as in Avian Flu.

Answer 6

first thing is the flu virus which is very rapid capasity to mutate and every year it gets changed and so thats the reason y our body is not able get resistance to that body

Answer 7

ur one of the type of ppl that think bad thoughts all the time right

Answer 8

It will be contagious.