2036, not 2029. And it's big enough to cause a lot of damage--but not to "destroy earth.
Which doesn't mean we shouldn't plan for the posibility it could end up on a collision course. Right now, NASA and othr scientific groups aredoing two things:
1)some feasibility studies on possible ways to deflect asteroids like this one.
2) Mapping and charting as many of these asteroids as they can (estimates are around 2000).
Beyond that, NASA isn't doing anyting about it. They can't without Congressional authorization and funding. And right now they don't even have the funding to develop the supposed "return to the moon" project Bush talked about--while he and his cronies were stripping NASA of even more of its budget.
That is relevant, BTW. If we dont start seriously developing a deep-space capability, we won't have the means to divert that asteroid if it does prove to be athreat.
2007-04-27 10:09:43
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answer #1
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answered by Anonymous
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I just love the way the sensationalist words "giant" and "destroy" (earth) attach themselves to the December 2004 news story of asteroid 99942 Apophis which is being endlessly re-run long after more observations and more data have led to recalculating the orbit,
Anyone would think someone was trying to improve TV ratings ot sell more newspapers rather than report the up-to-date facts objectively ... (per)versions of this story are spreading whereby the Giant Asteroid has grown as big as the Moon in the imaginations of the gullible (in fact the entire asteroid belt is only 4% of the mass of the Moon and 98% of it is orbiting between Mars and Jupiter!)
This "giant" is only 320 meters long, Big enough to cause damage to the impact point and for miles around but not big enough to cauise an extinction scenario for life on earth.
The present position is that:
(a) There is no chance of an impact in 2029.
(b) The chance of an impact in 2036 is 1 in 45,000.
(c) The chance of an impact in 2037 is 1 in 12.3 million.
This is what Wikipedia says:
"(99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029.
Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.
Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million."
(The full article is in the link below)
At those odds I for one am not going to lose any sleep about this.
In fact there are several initatives addressing these issues ...
(a) Despite the fact that there is no longer any significant probability of an Earth impact, the Planetary Society is offering a $50,000 prize for the best plan to put a tracking device on or near the asteroid
(b) In the 1980s NASA studied evidence of past strikes on planet Earth, and the risk of this happening at our current level of civilization. This led to a program to map which objects in our solar system both cross Earth orbit and are large enough to do us serious damage if they ever hit us.
In the 1990s, US Congress held hearings to consider the risks and what needed to be done about them.
This led to a US$3 million annual budget for programs like Spaceguard and the near-earth object program, as managed by NASA and USAF.
So far, 807 of an estimated 1,100 of these near-earth asteroids have been discovered in the inner solar system along with 57 comets; California's Jet Propulsion Laboratory is plotting their future tracks.
It is now anticipated that by year 2008, all such objects that are 1 km or more in diameter will have been identified and will be monitored.
(c) In 2005 the world's astronauts published an open letter through the Association of Space Explorers calling for a united push to develop strategies to protect Earth from the risk of a cosmic collision.
The space explorers want the many smaller, but still dangerous asteroids tracked as well. They propose that a tracking device be placed on Apophis to monitor it continuously,
2007-04-27 09:43:53
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answer #2
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answered by Anonymous
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It'll come close to Earth in 2029, and then NASA can calculate if it'll hit us, predicting what will happen in space in 20 years isn't exactly easy, if you think your Algebra II homework is hard, try Astrophysics. If it is on a collision course with Earth, a plan will be devised then. Won't be like Armogedden though.
2007-04-27 08:54:09
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answer #3
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answered by Anonymous
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NASA is in the middle of developing a global protection plan to defend the earth from space threats. This is really a committee that explores possible solutions rather than an action committee to address a specific threat. The reality is that we lack the infrastructure to detect threats until it is virtually too late, and even if we did detect a threat their is very little we can do to address it.
2007-04-27 08:50:02
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answer #4
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answered by levindis 4
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No plans.
But you got your facts wrong.
The asteroid will not hit Earth after all, according to the latest tracking data.
The asteroid is very small, less than a quarter of a mile wide.
2007-04-27 09:54:03
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answer #5
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answered by campbelp2002 7
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I remember watching a documentary where nasa said that the movie plots of destroying in space before it reaches us would be riskier and more dangerous than if it hit us when whole.So probably that method will not be employed.In that same docu they said a laser beam to divert it's course or little robots to land there might steer in out of our path.But nothings certain yet just ideas.
2007-04-27 12:02:01
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answer #6
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answered by ? 4
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a noticeably intelligent white female, with an IQ over three hundred, in simple terms out of highschool (already with numerous bachelor of technology ranges) who depending an section launch agency at age 16, will fly a spaceship of her own layout with a blend chemical/deuterium fusion propulsion equipment, to the asteroid and deflect it utilizing something else of her gasoline. Her call? Brenda Lynn Jones. because the tale ends, the folk in the international imagine she's gone continuously. yet wait... per chance no longer. study the sequel to work out what takes position next.
2016-11-28 03:07:09
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answer #7
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answered by ? 4
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Could u tell me more about this, I believe it might affect me.
2007-04-27 08:50:05
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answer #8
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answered by Anonymous
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Not much they can do at this point...and, I believe, they recently re-calculated its trajectory and it should miss us.
2007-04-27 08:42:28
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answer #9
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answered by Anonymous
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