What is the likelihood of giant meteor hitting the earth?

Question

My 11-year-old daughter heard at school from other students that a giant meteor is predicted to hit the earth in the next 7 to 10 years, wiping out all life. They say it's been on the news. I've never heard of this before but she's obsessed with it now. Any astromer's out there who can confirm or deny this prediction?

Answer 1

"Giant" and "wipe out all life" are typical sensationalist exaggerations that have crept into the story of Asteroid (not meteor) 99942 Apophis which was initially thought to be at risk of impact in 2029 when first discovered in 2004.

The story won't die even though after further calculation of the orbit the present position is that:

There is no chance of an impact in 2029.
The chance of an impact in 2036 is 1 in 45,000.
The chance of an impact in 2037 is 1 in 12.3 million.

The "Giant" is a mere 320 meters long. Stories circulating suggest it is as big as the Moon. The biggest asteroid, Ceres is no more than 1.2% of the mass of the moon and is safely in a stable orbit way beyond Mars so there is no asteroid remotely as big as the Moon except in uninformed journalists' imaginations.It was on the Bill O'Reilly TV show in America recently. I gather.

Doom and gloom stories sell newspapers and boost ratings for TV shows, I fear and a sober report of "Panic over. No need to worry" is not going to do either of those things. I am sorry to hear that 11 year-olds are being caused needless worry by this kind of irresponsible journalism.

This is what Wikipedia says:

(99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029.

Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.

Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale. As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

At those odds I for one am not going to lose any sleep about this.

The full article is in the link below

Answer 2

This is all media hype, (Which is all they ever seem to do nowadays)

On the factual side, small, minute meteors hit the Earth, many many times, usually with extremely neglible destructive results.
But a "planetkiller" meteor, as they've been described, hits the Earth with the frequency of about once every 100 million years, perhaps longer.

NASA has seen a meteor of this magnitude in our vicinity. but calculations (And NASA rarely screws those up) are that it will miss us in the year 2030. To us, it'll seem like another distant star in the sky when it passes, but on a universal scale, it could be considered "A close call". The only visible results of its passing will be:
higher than usual ocean tides
possible weather disturbances which will be stronger in intensity, but that's it.
There will NOT be a collision.

NASA has, however, noticed a meteor of a large magnitude which may, just may, cause some serious damage about 250 years down the road.

Answer 3

There is little I can add to what has already been said... but... to answer your main question:

The possibility of a large meteor/asteroid hitting the Earth is not hard to calculate: It is a Certainty.

However, the chances of a large object hitting the Earth in the next 7 to 10 years is minimal (for all the reasons already stated).

The Earth will be hit again... but I'm pretty sure by the time the next Big One comes our way we will have the technology to avert the disaster it would have been without technology. Either that or we will have already destroyed ourselves so it wouldn't matter ;)

You can tell your daughter not to worry... the chances that she'll have a long life ahead of her are good :)

Answer 4

The asteroid is called Apophis, and it will come near the Earth in 2029, but it will definitely miss. There is a 1 in 6500 chance of an asteroid hitting the Earth in 2035. That means there is a 99.98 chance of it missing - I'll take those odds. Even if it hits, it will not wipe out all life on Earth, as it is not very big, by asteroid standards (about 300 metres in diameter).

Here are two links with info.
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Answer 5

A 'meteor' is an object which burns up in the atmosphere. If it hits the earth's surface, it is a 'meteorite'. Therefore, the probability of a 'meteor' hitting the earth is zero, by definition.

Answer 6

well not a meteor actually, a astroid is coming to earth, it will orbit the earth a few times and go back again. it has no harm to life. and there is an asteroid might be coming to earth but scientists can solve its problem, they can change the path of astroid that it will not come to earth. scientist have giant equpments to face the astroids and to chage the path of them, as denoted above, the astroid is coming to earth in coming 50 to 60 years .

Answer 7

it did before ,the gulf of mexico is suposed to be a giant meteor hole
so that means it could happen again.

Answer 8

The end of the world is passe.

Answer 9

i think i read in Time about 6 yrs ago about the same asteroid......it wuold be beta if it was a giant cockroch, because we could just use some bug spray.........

Answer 10

There is one coming close in 2030, I can't remember details