What do baseball journalists say about the Home Run record ?

Question

Is there any sort of a debate about who could pass Aaron and Bonds in the HR record list ?
Compiling a few stats, it is found that:
H. Aaron hit 755 HRs in 3298 games (32.8 HRs/game) during 23 seasons and retired at 42.
B. Bonds has 734 / 2860 (35.0) in 21 seasons and is currently 42.
A-Rod has 464 / 1746 (35.7) in 13 seasons and is 31.
A. Pujols has 250 / 933 (41.7) in 6 seasons and is 27.

If the A's stay healthy long enough, they should both pass 755. At their current pace, playing until 42 would lead them to 857 (A-Rod) and 875 (Pujols) respectively. If Pujols played 23 seasons like Aaron did, he'd reach 1000 ! But he'd be 45 at that time...
My guess is that A-Rod might break the record because its pace is higher than Bonds' or Aaron's and he started younger. Pujols might not keep his 40+ pace but high 30s will be enough to get past them all.
Of course, this is statistically-wise only not taking injuries into account. Also if A-Rod goes to the NL, his pace might go down.

Answer 1

I guess it depends on your formula. I plugged the numbers into Bill James' "Favorite Toy" calculator, which isn't as optimistic as you about their chances.

It gave Pujols a 21% chance of reaching 755, and Alex only a 26% chance of getting that number. I'm not sold on either one, because it also feels that they'll only play another 5-8 years each, which is difficult to imagine, especially with Pujols.

The popular sentiment seems to be that Alex will break the record, and that Pujols will follow him with an opportunity to knock Rodriguez from the top spot. I think both have a great chance, but they're both still a long way from the record (291 and 505 respectively) and plenty can happen to derail their chances - injuries, off-field problems, or just a startling drop in performance due to age.

Answer 2

The Favorite Toy says you have (24 - 0.6*Age) seasons remaining. According to the formula, a 40yo player has no season remaining. That sounds fair to retire at 40 (Aaron was 42 and Bonds is 42). A 30yo player would retire at 36 and a 20yo would leave at 32... 32 is about the age most athletes (in most sports) reach their peak performances. Then what ? A-Rod should retire in July acording to the formula... And I do not get how a 20yo would play only 12 years and how the 40yo guy managed to still play at 40, since he should have gone for a long time. If the longest you can play is 12 seasons, he should have started at 28 but then has only 7 seasons remaining so he retires at 35. I think this formula looks a bit crappy.
Hank Aaron had his best HR perfomance during his 18th season and only during the last 3 did he begin to hit less homers. The same goes for Bonds, but maybe steroids helped him hit consecutive 40+ HRs seasons after his 15th season. Basically for all big hitters, the best performances arise between the 14th and 18th seasons. Right where A-Rod is going through. If he plays until 42 like Aaron or Bonds, even 15 homers a year might be enough to break the record if he can hit 40+ during the next 3-4 seasons. That's almost a lock... And the same goes for Pujols of course. These two guys should be close at the end anyway.

Answer 3

Well you would have to ask them, lol. I guess we will have to wait and see when Hall of Fame voting comes around for Big Barry. If he is not a first ballot guy, then the media has spoken.

Answer 4

I really think you would need to put in a curve of decent to show home run production as age increases

Answer 5

Does it matter they are jounalists