Probability Question (what were my odds of winning?)?

Question

Hi I have a probability question. And it can be related to Poker (cause thats what I need it for =). My question is ...

I have 1100 chips and my opponent has 1900 chips. We are all-in and my odds of winning the pot (doubling up) was 81%. I win.

In the same game, my opponent has 750 chips left and I have 2250 chips. We are all-in again and I am 67% to take the rest of his chips. BUT instead, HE wins and doubles up thereby we now have 1500 chips each.

We go all-in again and I am 61% to win and I do and I win the tournament. The question is ... WHAT WERE MY OVERALL ODDS OF WINNING THAT GAME? I was 81% to double up then I was 67% to win the game (but lost), then I was 61% to win the game (and won).

What is the equation you use to figure this out?? Would there be any variation if the stack sizes above were different? (Supposing I had 1400 chips on the last all-in and won and he was left with 200 chips, how would that affect the outcome?).

Thanks so much for info !!!!!

Answer 1

It easier to caculate the odd of your losing the tournament:

1st possibility: You lose 1st hand = 19%

2nd possibility: Win 1st, lose 2nd, lose 3rd =
=0.81*0.33*0.39 = 0.104 (call it 10.4%)

So your odds overall of winning were:

100% - 19% - 10.4% = 70.6%

Answer 2

You did not say if this was draw - stud or 7 card.

Basic odds are 50 / 50 with only two player pulling from the same deck the same amount of only 5 cards one player will have the best hand.

Each hand starts a new and clean 50 / 50 chance of winning.

If you draw then the odds change depending on the number of cards. for each player you would start with 5:47 against pulling the best hand, with 47 left in the deck. Of course with an alt. deal the odds drop evenly against as each card is deal. The odds are against that the better hand would not be dealt at all. Still leaving you with a 50/50 chance of pulling the better hand between two players.

Answer 3

Your odds of winning are dependent not on your chips but rather on your cards. The chips are just counters, the only way they can effect the odds of you winning is if you have enough more of them than your opponent to "buy" the pot.

Answer 4

properly for the 5 hundred and ten there's a 2 p.c. danger of triumphing the place for the 350-a million there's a three p.c. danger. in my view i might flow with the 5 hundred tickets and 10 prizes reason to different persons of their innovations there is 9 greater prizes to be gained for this reason a miles better danger.

Answer 5

ur odds of winning, like with anything else is 50-50