people like ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. pick the order of the mock drafts but its not always right (last year when reggie bush got skipped) the reason they go down/up is because they have bad/good workouts or pro days. hope this helps
2007-04-14 13:35:31
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answer #1
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answered by Anonymous
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To put it simply, people lie.
Teams often put out false information through back channels, like the media but sometimes more privately, in order to put up a smoke screen.
It's to no one's advantage to tip your hand early in such matters. Let's say the Vikings think Brady Quinn is exactly what they need. Are they going to tell anyone? No. That would make the Lions demand that much more if the two of them got together and talked trade. It also would hurt them at contract time with Quinn.
There is some natural movement of players during the course of the offseason. Players can have good workouts and improve their stock. The best example of that was Mike Mamula of Boston College, who had an extraordinary session before scouts. The Eagles drafted him number one. As it turned out, the Eagles should have paid more attention to the early rankings; Mamula never did a thing.
Trades can affect thinking too. The Bills just acquired a defensive tackle from the Eagles for a lineback; that makes Buffalo more likely to go for a linebacker in the first round.
Plus, we overthink these things. Draft experts study the situaiton for months.
2007-04-14 16:41:57
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answer #2
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answered by wdx2bb 7
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It's all opinion, theorization and educated-guessing in terms of mock-drafts. For example, the analysts look at a team and their areas of need. With the Redskins for instance, a lot of analysts look at their D-line and see that as a need, therefore, most of the mock drafts have them picking a DE or DT at the #6 slot.
Another thing to keep in mind is that with some positions like QB, even though a player might be the 2nd or 3rd best all-around player in the draft according to some, a player can plunge down mock drafts if no team has a clear need. With Quinn, like you were saying, he's dropping down a lot in some people's eyes because if the Raiders pass, there might not be a team that needs a QB for quite a few picks.
2007-04-14 16:05:33
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answer #3
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answered by penixmania 2
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Part of the problem with ranking players is the rankings often dont match a teams needs or people project someone based on a "leak" from a team that they may be interested in (which usually means they arent, they want to get someone they think is enamored with him to trade up so they get extra picks). A great example this year will be the Lions situation. Nearly everyone thinks they will take Joe Thomas, the reality is likely much different. They signed 3 linemen and traded for another and Millen spends a lot of time talking up (a great clue they arent interested...they never pick the guy Millen talks up). That messes up the draft prognosticators because the draft suddenly changes at the 2nd pick. If the Lions trade down (most likely to happen) it becomes a question of who moves up and who they pick. For instance...TB is known to like only Quinn, Russell or Johnson (the guy they really want) but all could be gone before they use the 4th pick. So they may make a major bid for the Lions pick....but wait, the Dolphins and Vikings are also in dire need of a QB. Could one of them trade into the Lions spot? Miami loaded up with extra picks...a precursor to a deal? Now the Lions could end up with pick 4, 7 or 8. That skews the draft quite a bit, but wait hat if the Texans deem Thomas too good to not deal up for, clearly they need line help and they might like Levi Brown...might not. Washinton is sitting a pick 6, they are also shopping their pick....could the Bears move into their slot by swapping Briggs and a pick? That is why the draft takes such twists and turns because the known quickly becomes the unknown. The draft guru's are the ones everyone listens to, that is the problem because they know as little as us fans as to what each team is thinking. In fact several teams will leak false info hoping the guru's report that stuff so other teams dont really know what another team is thinking...they will pay a higher price to move up if they are unsure their guy wont make it to them.
2007-04-14 14:03:48
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answer #4
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answered by viphockey4 7
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At the combine (NFL scouts observe draft procspects) many players may slide down because there not as fast or strong as other players at there position. For example, Jamaracus Russell will likely be taken over Brady Quinn because he is much stronger and faster. Brady Quinn is more recognized because he went to Notre Dame (a football power-house) and Russell went to a school that isn't as televised or recognized (LSU). Also, people may work harder during the off-season and show more potential.
Hope this helps!
2007-04-14 13:36:41
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answer #5
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answered by Anonymous
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First of all, Mel Kiper is the main guru come draft time. He does a ton of research on players that are eligible, and rates them by position. Also, each players "worth" is determined by the draft order and each individual teams needs. For example, Jamarcus Russel is the #1 rated QB and Oakland has the 1st pick. Oakland is in desperate need of a quarterback, therefore, he becomes the projected 1st overall pick, and so on and so forth. Calvin Johnson is Mel Kiper's #1 overall player in the draft, but Oakland has a stronger need for a QB rather than a WR. In Brady Quinn's case, he was hot because he was just coming off of ND's pro day, in which scouts come and watch him complete NFL caliber drills. He performed extremely well, therefore, his stock rose. Currently, hes projected to be drafted by the Browns #3 because they have a high need for a qb. The Lions, with the #2 pick, have been projected with OT Joe Thomas due to their lack of depth at lineman. These projections change from week to week due to off season free agent transactions which changes needs from team to team, which in turn, changes projections! For example, a month ago, Cleveland was slated to take Adrian Petersen with the #3 pick. However; because they signed RB Jamal Lewis from Baltimore, they are no longer in need of a RB...ala Brady Quinn is their projection...Hope this helps!
2007-04-14 13:43:13
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answer #6
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answered by Deez Nuggetz 2
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a million: one in all my renowned gamers replaced into born on my birthday, who replaced into it? Dikembe Mutombo? Or Willis Reed? #2: Who would be the #2 %. interior the Draft? i will say Hasheem Thabeet, he seems to be the consensus #2. #3: Who will the Celtics draft? it is a not ordinary one to respond to, while a team is drafting that late, it is perplexing to assert who would be left that a team will choose. #4: Will there be from now on vast trades right this moment? sure. #5: Who gets extra technicals this season, Kendrick Perkins or Rasheed Wallace. Gotta pass with my guy, 'Sheed. Rasheed Wallace racking up T's is fantastically much a convention interior the NBA.
2016-10-22 04:36:56
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answer #7
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answered by lipton 4
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Experts are stupid....teams don't follow those rankings, they follow what they have seen on film and what they saw them do in the combine or pro day work outs. Teams that eye those players don't so much see their stock fall like the experts do. Hence Houston taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, they had a need and liked what they saw despite Bush being called the best player in the draft.
I'd have to say I'm glad for "falling stock" in players, if DeAngelo Williams' stock hadn't have fallen, Carolina wouldn't have been able to get him..Cheers!
2007-04-14 13:43:21
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answer #8
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answered by Carolina Kitten 6
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Picture it like this.
You run a multi-million dollar company and are in charge of raising profits. Part of your job is to fix areas that aren't doing so well (i.e.-offensive line, defensive backs, quarterback, etc).
If the competition knew you were in love with the kicker from Harvard, that would drive his (or her) price way up. So you act indifferent in the press, thereby giving them reason to write how the Harvard kicker isn't hot, or going to be drafted high.
Once the bell rings, though, it all comes out. I love watching the draft's first couple of rounds to see all the teams trying to lie for three months and then set their plan in motion. Makes for good soap opera.
2007-04-14 14:01:19
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answer #9
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answered by cantthinkofanygoodnames 3
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It's all fake. They don't really know. They just have 2 much time on their hands, and know nothing about football. Never listen 2 them.
2007-04-14 15:50:40
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answer #10
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answered by Anonymous
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