What are the odds of an economic recession in America this year?

Answer 1

About the same as the Fuel prices going up above $3.00 per gallon...

People don't always realize how it in turn makes everything else go up as well because of shipping.

Answer 2

VERY LOW

"A recession is traditionally defined in macroeconomics as a decline in a country's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more successive quarters of a year (equivalently, two consecutive quarters of negative real economic growth). " (1)

USA GDP is rising and corporations are growing. It would take a shock to change the force of the Bulls running. This could happen if a flu pandemic broke out, or war happened on USA soil, but both of these have a low probablity.

However, I would guess that we will still see Growth Recession until the USA government changes it's tax structure from income to sales. "Growth Recession is a phrase used by business economists, but rarely academic economists. It very generally means growth in the economy that is so weak that more jobs are being destroyed than created. Therefore, Real GDP is expanding (slowly) but jobs are contracting so it feels like a recession." (2)

Answer 3

The same as the rest of us 50/50 anything can happen. chill