The asteroid in question is 99942 Apophis and it is quite small (250 metres approx). and as such it it would not extinguish all life on earth even if it did hit us, the odds against which are fairly enormous anyway ...
Wikipedia reports:
(99942) Apophis (previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a relatively large probability that it would strike the Earth in 2029.
Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole", a precise region in space no more than about 400 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036.
This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006.
Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed and on August 5, 2006, Apophis was lowered to a Level 0 on the Torino Scale.
As of October 19, 2006 the impact probability for April 13, 2036 is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified, however the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.
I comment:
At such long odds I don't propose to lose any sleep over this. What people dont realise is that Apophis has been orbiting the sun for millions of years and there has not been an impact yet,
Its orbit is 323 days and most of the time it is nearer to the Sun than we are. Its orbit is more ellipticl than ours however so twice every 11 months it croses our orbit (coming out beyond our own orbit on the way to its aphelion and then going back again).
Most of the time we are nowhere near the cross-over point, eg being on the other side of the sun at the time. Thus it is only once every few years that there is a probability of impact to calculate, and bear iin mind the orbital path of the earth is a racetrack that is 2 x pi x 93 million miles long in circumference.
2007-04-06 03:42:20
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answer #1
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answered by Anonymous
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It's not predicted to crash into the earth in 2029. The chances of impact in 2036 are estimated at 1 in 45,000 and these odds will probably lengthen as more observations are made. To quote from NASA's Near Earth Object program website: "Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13)".
2016-05-18 04:08:30
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answer #2
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answered by ? 3
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Last week a half mile wide asteroid passed within 2 million miles of the earth and nobody got too upset. I wouldn't worry about 2036.
Here's a photo of the other asteroid (see link)
2007-04-06 06:03:09
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answer #3
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answered by normanbormann 4
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2036 huh! Look up the year 2012 on wikipedia. There is one going to pass the earth in February of that year and it estimated to be only about half the length it is from hear to the sun when it passes. If it moves off its course from know until then it could come right at us. Look's like you only have to wait 5 years instead of 29. Also some believe in the Myan calendar (I think its interesting but I don't know if its true). Their calendar ends on December 22, 2012 and some who beleive in the calendar think that means the end of the world or end of our civilization and the beginning of a new one. Who knows. Just some stuff to think and worry about.
2007-04-06 03:05:50
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answer #4
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answered by Puleeeze 2
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I personally would never believe anything reported by Bill O'Reilly unless it is verified by an actual credible news source. He is biased, and frequently reports doom and gloom just to boost his ratings, with no credible sources to back him up. The odds of a collision between the Earth and a large asteroid are infinitesimal at best.
2007-04-06 03:06:02
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answer #5
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answered by Heath B 3
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An asteroid could hit next year, you could get run over by a car tomorrow. This goes into the not worth worrying about box.
2007-04-06 03:02:04
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answer #6
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answered by Isaac 4
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Those are all estimates and every Milli meter counts. they could have been of my ..5 inches and have the asteroid miss us. Also we have the power to destroy it. If it comes down to it we can lunch a nuke from are satellite when the astride is far enough away.
NO WORRY"S.
Sent By Austin Mulka age 12
2007-04-06 04:01:12
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answer #7
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answered by DA MULKA'S 2
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I thought it was 2028. But, maybe I got may date wrong. But, there so many flying around it hard to say.
Yea, on October 26, 2028 is when we all die; 1997 XF11 has "Earth or Bust" written on it.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/1997xf11.html
2007-04-06 03:10:44
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answer #8
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answered by Snaglefritz 7
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Its NOT going to hit, people, so calm down.
It will be a near miss. "Near" in this case is measured in millions of miles, so the name is a misnomer.
And you shouldn't be listening to a scare-monger like Reilly any way.
2007-04-06 03:07:31
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answer #9
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answered by Anonymous
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Yea, i`ve heard of this too. At first it terrifyed me, now i just think:Whatever happens, happens.You can`t fight fate. Plzzzzzzzzzzzz tell me that they`ll figure out what to do by then + will have a plan =/
2007-04-06 03:02:40
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answer #10
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answered by life goes on ♥ 1
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