The hurricane predictions are out, any weather buffs out there with their own theory.?

Question

The predictions are out 17 named storms, 50% chance that a big one will hit the east coast of Florida this year. We dodged the bullet last year, 2004 was a nightmare. However, I know you can not predict mother nature. Any ametuers that follow weather patterns and statistics that have their own theory?

Answer 1

The season will be more active than normal because there will be no elnino. That being said there is really no way to predict where any hurricane will hit let alone give a percentage. They are only saying 50/50 because if one hits they can say well we were right and if one dosent they can say well we were right.. Florida stiicks out like a sore thumb so they are more at risk than say the georgia coast but there is no gaurentee one will hit the united states let alone florida.

The predictions are for a active season because of la nina ,above normal atlantic basin sea surface temps and weaker than normal trade winds

Seasons with similar conditions as this one include 1950 with 7 hurricanes (before satelites), 12 in 1964, 11 in 1966, 19 in 1995 and 16 in 2003. This also shows the 30 year period of active and non active hurricane periods

Answer 2

I'm sticking with the good old Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. I know, big name, but it's really quiet simple. All it is are the winds at the 50mb level, or just in the stratosphere. They have a 28 month cycle of easterly flow and then westerly flow. Westerly flow is ideal for hurricane development and easterly flow is not. This generally creates 2 active years and 2 non active years. So 2004 and 2005 were active years, 2006 was not an active year. 2007 will also not be an active year. 2008 and 2009 should both be active years. Unfortunately because it's a 28 month cycle, it doesn't follow the 2 year trend ALL the time. eventually it swaps around and gets a little weird, so there's a little speculation, but it won me quiet a few dinner lasts year (that's what my forecasting buddies and I bet with for weather)

Answer 3

Good question. These are the projections of Dr. William Gray and his team of researchers at Colorado State University. I was fortunate to have done my Ph.D work with Dr. Gray as my principal advisor. These projections are based to a large extent on the temperature of the north Atlantic, which supports 7 more named storms than would climatology suggest. Well the safest guess of course is to go with climatology which is the historical average number of hurricanes or tropical storms or whichever group you want to consider. These stats are available on the National Hurricane Center web page. Scroll down to the climatology link. Climatology predicts ten named storms and 6 Hurricanes two of which will be cat 3 or greater. But I believe that Dr. Gray may be very close this year and I will have to stick with the Colorado State projections.

Answer 4

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Answer 5

I believe it will rain in April and get warm in May JUNE, JULY, AUGUST will be HOT and filled with AM and PM Thunderstorms. The Pacific will be a hot spot for Hurricanes and the Atlantic will have its fair share of Tropical storms and Hurricanes. Sept, Oct, will bring mild weather and Nv, Dec. will see temp fall below 50 degrees in the Northeast.

Have a nice year!

Answer 6

The theory is that no one knows. Last year was supposed to be a major outbreak season and nothing really happened. They can't predict next week so why believe 5 months from now.

Answer 7

Actually after watching the weather patterns around the world, i am now a huge of Mother Man.

Answer 8

we're still getting over Charley from 2004. I hope they're wrong.

Answer 9

They have never been right w/ their predictions, so its pretty meaningless.