When will people realize??

Question

Winning in the regular season and winning in the play-offs are 2 different beasts. So many fans are ready to crown their teams based on this. Everyone starts off 0-0 in the post-season. Some teams are better built for play-off runs where you face the same team night in and night out, they wear them down and some can coast throught the regular season. Rarely do top teams meet in the finals.
The teams that I here mentioned most often as Finals contenders (because they are the best 2 REGULAR season teams) are the Sabres and the Wings.
IMO these 2 teams are a couple of the unlikliest candidates for the hardware. They are just not physical enough to handle the wear and tear and for 2 great teams (regular season), they have alot of question marks.

GojaysGo-yeah,you are going to rip the question apart alright.
Yes. I did pay attention last year when THE SABRES GOT WORN DOWN and therefore won nothing. Did you pay attention. Yes. Injuries wore them down because THEY WERE NOT ABLE TO WITSTAND THE PHYSICALITY OF THE PLAY-OFFS. Thank you for validating my point. Sabres fans need to look no further than last year indeed.

Mike- I did however overlook the Bertuzzi pick-up. He should help.

Also GoJaysGo- the best teams in the REGUALR SEASON are the teams that can roll 4 lines. Come play-off time, the best teams are the ones with the best goaltending, timely scoring, hottest special teams and can STAY HEALTHY ENOUGH to withstand the grind.

Major Tom-decent answer but I hate it when fans can't see their team weaknesses and just rah-rah -rah.

Answer 1

YUP! Detroit is the glaring example. It is all about when you peak. Teams that have to make a last ditch effort to get in need to start giving their best now. Example: last 10 games of their probable rivals Calgary 7-3, or Minnesota 7-2-1. Detroit, like usual first place teams, peaked months ago and playing 500 right now. In this second season, sorry guys you don't get gimmies, you don't play St Louis, Columbus and Chicago anymore.

Detroit isn't going to do well against anyone that is coming out of a dog eat dog Northwest division. It isn't completely random that a team from there made it to the Cup for the last 2 years. And they better hope they don't meet Calgary first round. That is their worst nightmare. (I hate Calgary - I'm a bigger Detroit fan. But I am also a realist.)

The other glaring wake up to reality is the number 2 in the East, Pittsburgh. Sure I am happy you had a great season and are such an exciting team. But enjoy the playoffs when you can, the party ends quickly. You do not have the playoff experience and you do not have the solid goal-tending for the 7 game style of play. Also there, I point out how as teams ready for the playoffs, and there are more divisional match ups to end the season, Crosby points are dropping off. The points he does get the last couple weeks are mostly against teams rank 9th through 15th. Their worst nightmare would be Tampa Bay. No experience verses a team that have been all the way, then nobodies the next year. Don't you think their will be knowledge and a hunger there?

Answer 2

1) The team winning the Cup since the NHL adopted a1-8 seeded playoff system has had:

The best record in the regular season 4 times. (33%)
The one of the top two records in the league 6 times. (50%)
One of the top three records in the conference 7 times. (58%)
One of the five best records in the league 11 times out of twelve. (92%)

The only team to win the Cup without a top five record in the last dozen year was the 1995 New Jersey Devils. And that was the strike-shortened season. Regular season matters. It might not be the only indicator, but statistically it's a big one.

2) The Sabres lost last year in the conference finals. They also beat the Flyers and the Senators convincingly. That series against the Canes was a squeaker (all 7-gamers are). You can talk about that loss all you want, but the fact of that matter is that they lead 2-1 going into the third period of game seven. They got withing 20 minutes of the finals.

Despite all of the injuries and having a so so goalie, I believe that series was decided by home ice advantage. The Sabres would probably have won if they had game 7 on their home ice. I don't have the stats on me right now, but in the NHL, home ice advantage is huge in a game seven. Something like 70% or 80% of the time, it's the home team that wins game seven. And Buffalo @ Carolina was close enough that you have to believe home ice was pivotal in that game.

3) Goaltending wins in the playoffs? Two words: Cam Ward. Also remember, it's the new NHL. It's harder to win every game 1-0 like the Devils always try to do.

4) If last year is any indicator, then ability to come from behind is a key ingredient to winning in the playoffs in the new NHL. The Canes had like a billion come from behind victories during last year's playoffs. This year, the Sabres lead the NHL in come from behind victories.

5) In every sport, experience is a key ingredient. The Sabres have a lot to draw off of from last year's run.

6) It looks like the Sabres are a fragile team because of injuries. But I wonder how much of it is because they are small. I think injuries are largely based on dumb luck, and the players who have bad luck are seen as "injury prone."

Otherwise, Lindros would never have gotten decked by Stevens in the 2000 playoffs.

7) Chemistry wins in the playoffs. The Sabres have 16 players on their team that have never been on another team. They know each other very well by now.

8) Every team has a lot of question marks. Do look at the standings, the teams are closer than they have ever been in the NHL. That's what the salary cap will do for you.

Answer 3

I think "most" Hockey nuts get it (although looking at some of what is posted here you have to wonder sometimes), sports fans in general don't because the Stanley Cup is the HARDEST trophy to win in ALL of professional sports. It's really just a second season starting with half the teams, and yes a lot of times the things that will win you games in the regular season just won't do it for you in the playoffs.

Yes, sometimes, even often the best team in the regular season wins the cup, but there are some things cup winners MUST have that won't cost you regular season wins. If you don't have "balanced scoring", you will find that your 50 goal scorer gets a lot of attention in the playoffs and not a lot of room to work. Playoff experience is essential. A Goaltender who can handle the pressure is a must. That's another one - if you have 2 "good" Goalies that'll hurt when you play the team with one GREAT Goalie because YOU CAN'T PLAY THEM BOTH AT ONCE, where in the regular season that rotation may keep them fresh.

And often it just comes down to the team that's the healthiest.

In any case, this year I see about 7-8 top teams that are REAL close together in record, talent and style of play, it would be silly for me to say [insert team here] WILL win the Cup. But not for a lot of people here apparently.....

Answer 4

Well first of all it's part of being a fan. If you don't feel like your team can win then there is no use in BEING a fan. However, you are right. We need look no further than last year's playoffs where the top 4 in the west went down in the 1st round. Then we ended up with a 3rd seed and 8th seed playing for all the marbles.

The slate is wiped clean at the end of the regular season, and whomever can ratchet it up after this and can withstand the grueling pace of the playoffs and the SC will eventually emerge as the winner!

My heart still shouts - GO RED WINGS!!!!!!!

Bob - you seem to be an intelligent and insightful guy, but a bit too serious. You need to lighten up a little and have fun with this. I know the Red Wings are not the Wings of '01- '02, but there is still hope. With all the things going on in hockey today, at least there ARE still people going rah-rah-rah!

Answer 5

For myself, the greatest indicator of playoff success is obviously the hardware. But as for predicting how a team will will do is best judged in the last 5 games of the regular season with a special emphasis on the goaltender.

I am a Flyers fan, yet I could not help feeling for those Sabres fans who were suggesting that the team would go on to win the Stanley Cup because the Sabres were undefeated at the beginning of the season.

Answer 6

What was the stat they just gave the other night, like 4 or 5 teams that won the President's trophy have gone on to win the Stanley Cup. So what does the best overall record get you? A shiny trophy. Yet every team would much rather have their name on that Cup then have a shiny trophy. I can't tell you how annoyed I get with those whiny Sabres fans either. Well we would have won without the injuries. Oh and no other team EVER has injuries? The best team is able to DEAL WITH INJURIES. I have to TOTALLY agree with you for once. Not as sure about the Redwings because I don't pay much attention to the West. Just like fans expect their team to sweep through the first round and then have no trouble in the next round. Like the teams don't scout each other? Like teams don't watch how other teams play in the playoffs?

I just hope people, like Austin, realize THERE IS NO SHOOTOUT IN THE PLAYOFFS. Pointing out the Pens shootout record is meaningless. For the record they SUCKED at the shootout at the start of the season. They GOT better at it. Yet that will mean NOTHING when the playoffs start. I'm a Pens fan and think they can make it to the Conference Finals. I'm also realistic enough to figure that is about it. Yeah they could go on and win the Cup, but they could also lose in the first round(likely playing Ottawa).

Answer 7

There you go causing trouble again. Anyway, I have to agree with you about the playoffs being an entirely different kind of game than regular season play. I'm worried about how Ryan Miller's going to fare when everyone tightens up their games and the Sabres can't afford to let in 4 or 5 goals and still expect to be successful. I disagree with you about what you see as a lack of durability from the rest of the team, though. They're a young team and they can take a lot of punishment, and I hardly think injuries like the concussion that Tim Connolly received in the second round last year can be attributed to inability to endure the grind of the playoffs. I can think of at least one Sabre who's made it all the way and won the final, too, but it was a good try I'll have to say. Whether my team makes the final or not is up to them and their play, but I think that they had a taste of what they can expect in the playoffs this year and, God willing, they will withstand the stress and be even more successful this season.

Answer 8

Okay I am going to rip this question apart. What is making you suggest that the Sabres are not qualified? Did you not pay attention to last year? They have not fallen from where they were last year in the standings. They have continued to perform at the same level. They are built for this NHL. Do you need to be tough? Yes I think Mentally more than physically. All of these players are tough physically. The Sabres have shown all year that they can come from behind and overcome obstacles throughout the year. We are talking about a team that was missing 8 regulars for the better part of the last month or so. Not just any old guys either. The injured included Chris Drury, Maxim Afinogenov, Toni Lydman. This team has been devastated yet they have proven that their depth and toughness may be their two biggest assets. I do agree that the best two teams generally are not always the best contenders in the Playoffs however I would encourage you to beware of this Sabres team. While the regular season may not be what the playoffs are, the regular season does offer many tests along the way. I point to the 6-5 slug fest with Ottawa when Drury went down with a dirty hit by Chris Neil. The Sabres overcame that and still managed to beat the Sens. The most dangerous teams in the playoffs are those that can roll 4 solid lines the Sabres are one of those. Detroit, I dont see them doing it. Hasek is good for some Groin injury halfway through and that does it for Detroit.

Answer 9

I agree with you completely... look at the Western Conference, for example, every team will reach the century mark when the season is over. These teams are way too close and too competitive... No one team (or 2 or 3 teams)dominated the league this year. We have about 10 teams that are statistically in the same depth of talent... This has been a great year for the NHL.

Someone will dominate in the playoffs and I think we will all be surprised.

Answer 10

Seems like the Sens will never realize it, when they make deadline deals guys like Oleg Saprykin. Why do these teams make the same mistakes year after year after year?

The two things that matter most are game-stealing goaltending and the ability to play tight-checking games. Teams that have run-and-gunned their opposition to the ground during the year won't be allowed to do so. Even though I'm not sold on Buffalo's ability to win the nastier games, they may still squeak through because Miller is a top-level goalie, and I have questions about everyone else.

In the West, it seems like everyone has a strong team. The one team I wouldn't put my faith in is Detroit - most of their key guys are players that play best when given room, room they will not get in the playoffs. Add a fragile 40-year-old netminder to the mix and I'm iffy on them. I like Calgary the most, but would still concede they don't have the grit they did during their last run.