As fantastic an idea as it may seem to us, it may indeed be in reality behind the politics of Iran to provoke a war. Iranian president Ahmadi-nejad is a mahdaviat (one who believes in and prepares for the mahdi) The mahdi is the divinely guided one who appears to lead Muslims during a time of chaos. Ahmadi-nejad spent $17 million of Iran's money to remodel the Jamkaran mosque in Qom in preparation for the arrival of the mahdi.
If Iran provokes a war and the mahdi arrives then Iran was instrumental in doing it. If Iran provokes a war and the mahdi does not arrive but a lot of Iranians die then they will all go to jannah (heaven) because they have died in the jihad fee sybil Allah (jihad for Allah).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_H7af26_Gk
Even if no military action ensues, then Iran has gained respect in the Muslim world for standing up to the West.
However, it seems that military confrontation may be on the horizon.
In addition to the British frigate HMS Cornwall, there is a multi-national strike force in the Persian Gulf. Furthermore, there are British naval vessels stationed at the Diego Garcia atoll in the Indian ocean. The British Royal Navy may take action with its Special Boat Service (SBS) , the British Royal Navy's special forces unit. The service's motto is "By Strength and Guile". It forms part of the United Kingdom Special Forces, alongside the Special Air Service (SAS), Special Reconnaissance Regiment (SRR), and Special Forces Support Group (SFSG).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Boat_Service
Ready to assist are the American aircraft carrier strike group Bremerton-based aircraft carrier CVN-73 USS John C. Stennis (formerly in Indian Ocean), the American aircraft carrier strike group CVN-69 USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the French nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle and its task force are all in close appoximation in the Persian Gulf. A 3rd carrier group, the CVN-68 USS Nimitz, may also be in the Persian Gulf soon as it was scheduled for its WESTPAC07 deployment to replace the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower which was deployed December 2006.
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=3961
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/navy/batgru-68.htm
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070330/pl_afp/usmilitaryirannavy_070330160111;_ylt=Annlx2.rLEDDrJgz9RYaNIcUewgF
The US may have deployed 4 or 5 carrier groups in the Persian Gulf
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070328/62741920.html
Hmmmmm
Maybe CVN-76 Reagan was deployed
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/navy/batgru-76.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/where.htm
Maybe CVN-72 Lincoln?
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/navy/batgru-72.htm
Is CVN-77 Bush ready?
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/ship/cvn-77.htm
More details about military options can be found here:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-strikes.htm
On Tuesday, March 27, 2007, the two US strike groups, USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the USS Stennis, along with guided-missile cruiser USS Antietam, conducted military exercises in the Persian Gulf. The participants included 15 warships and more than 100 aircraft..
Each carrier carries an air wing of F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornet fighter-bombers, EA-6B Prowler electronic warfare aircraft, S-3 Viking refueling and anti-submarine planes, and E-2C Hawkeye airborne command-and-control aircraft.
Also taking part were six guided-missile destroyers, the Anzio, Ramage, O'Kane, Mason, Preble and Nitze; the frigate Hawes; amphibious assault ships Boxer and Bataan; and the minesweepers Scout, Gladiator and Ardent.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2007-03/28/content_838185.htm
The Isfahan plant is above ground, but Natanz is more than 50ft below and would require either a tactical nuclear missile or a conventional bunker-buster bomb to destroy it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,1753223,00.html.
Iran is dealing with two issues.
o- First, Iran has captured 15 British Royal Navy personnel.
o- Second, Iran has refused to cooperate with the UNSC regarding cessation of uranium enrichment.
At 10:30 a.m. on March 23, 2007, six IRCG guard boats ambushed, surrounded and seized two Royal Navy 'ribs' (rigid-hulled inflatable boats) containing 15 Royal Navy personnel (eight sailors and seven marines) from the frigate HMS Cornwall. The Royal Navy boats were on patrol just outside the mouth* of the 125-mile waterway which divides Iraq from Iran. Sovereignty over the waterway, and corresponding territorial waters, is disputed between Iraq and Iran. A 1975 treaty recognized the middle of the waterway as its border. It is called "Shatt al-Arab" waterway in Arabic meaning "Arab Coastline". It is called "Arvandrud" in Persian meaning "Arvand River".
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6494289.stm
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAN_WHERES_THE_BORDER?SITE=MIDTF&SECTION=US&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2007-03-27-15-05-08
(map of waterway and HMS Cornwall area of operation)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6494289.stm#map
The British government release the GPS coordinates as evidence demonstrating that its 15 naval personnel detained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards last Friday were seized while in Iraqi waters and not inside Iranian territory.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/d26b393e-dbbe-11db-9233-000b5df10621.html
The British MoD says the Royal Navy patrol was inspecting an Iraqi fishing boat anchored at the mouth of the waterway which was suspected of smuggling automobiles.
HOSTAGES
British MoD say the British were:
o- 1.7 nautical miles (2 miles; 3.1 kilometers) inside Iraqi territory at precisely 29 degrees 50.36 minutes north latitude and 048 degrees 43.08 minutes east longitude
TRESSPASSERS
IRGC say the British were:
o- 0.5 km deep into the Iranian waters
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-1257880,00.html
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2042289,00.html
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BRITISH_SEIZED_IRAN?SITE=PASUN&SECTION=INTERNATIONAL
Map of both positions:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/galleries/593.html?SITE=MIDTF&SECTION=US&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
http://www.cnn. com/2007/ WORLD/meast/ 03/31/iran. sailors/index. html
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- in remarks carried by state radio and reported by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency -- said, "The occupying British forces entered our waters, and our border guards, with courage and alertness, arrested them."
"These arrogants, due to their arrogant mentality and selfishness, instead of apologizing, they acted as if we owe them," he said.
Ahmadinejad also took a wider swipe at Britain and other Western nations.
"In the last 300 years, the arrogant powers have been stealing from other nations. They have enslaved the people of other nations," he said.
Iran justifies arresting the British crew because the U.S.arrested five members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Erbil in Northern Iraq on January 11.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1604546,00.html
Under the mandate of the UNSC Resolution 1723, the British team had been conducting a compliance inspection of a suspicious Iraqi merchant ship. The intercepted British crew being ambushed and surrounded by IRGC surrendered without a fight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_1723
It is alleged that similar Iraqi vessels routinely transport Iraqi Shiites into Iran for training by the elite Quds force, a branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guard. In addition, Iraqi vessels transport arms from Iran to Iraq.
The 15 Royal Navy personnel are being held in Tehran at the Revolutionary Guard Corps base.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6494289.stm.
Iran has elicited "confessions" from the 15 British sailors they captured and may put them on trial for espionage.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1563877.ece
“If it is proven that they deliberately entered Iranian territory, they will be charged with espionage. If that is proven, they can expect a very serious penalty since according to Iranian law, espionage is one of the most serious offences.” Espionage carries a death sentence.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2042259,00.html
Iran's detention of 15 Royal Navy personnel is "unjustified and wrong", Prime Minister Tony Blair has said. UK officials are waiting to be granted access to the HMS Cornwall staff, who were seized on Friday, and have not been told where the group are held. "It simply is not true that they went into Iranian territorial waters and I hope the Iranian government understands how fundamental an issue this is for us," Mr Blair said. "We have certainly sent the message back to them very clearly indeed. They should not be under any doubt at all about how seriously we regard this act, which is unjustified and wrong."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6493391.stm
(in French)
http://www.france24.com/france24Public/fr/administration/article-afp.html?id=070327102418.nid1l893&cat=monde
Iran announced it would release Faye Turney, the sole female among the 15 captured personnel of the Royal Navy. Clad in a white tunic and a black shayla-style head scarf, she appeared on Al-Alam TV, an Arabic-Language, Iranian state-run TV station that is carried across the Middle East. "Obviously we trespassed into their waters," was her statement which continued with details of how she had been treated.
http://www.comcast.net/news/international/index.jsp?cat=INTERNATIONAL&fn=/2007/03/28/621792.html
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BRITISH_SEIZED_IRAN?SITE=PASUN&SECTION=INTERNATIONAL
see the video
http://video.ap.org/v/en-ap/v.htm?f=MIDTF&g=1EF1EAE6-3EFC-42CA-93E9-
more detail video
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/default.stm
see her letter to her parents
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/galleries/593.html?SITE=MIDTF&SECTION=US&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Iranian Prime Minister Mottaki has retracted the possible release of Mrs. Turney and indicated that Iran wants Britain to admit their "mistake".
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8O5FP200&show_article=1
Iran shows video of second British crewman, Nathan Thomas Summers. In the video he deadpans, "We trespassed without permission," adding he knew that Iran had seized British military personnel who strayed into their waters three years ago.
"This happened back in 2004 and our government said that it wouldn't happen again." Summers continued, "And, again, I 'deeply' apologize for entering your waters." Then he described the treatment he received as "very friendly".
(see video of Nathan Summers)
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c89_1175266290
see video
http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6510000/newsid_6510200/6510287.stm?bw=nb&mp=wm
IBritish Prime Minister Tony Blair criticized Iran's threatment of the caputred Royal Navy Crew.
o-- "I really don't know why the Iranian regime keep doing this. I mean all it does is enhance people's sense of disgust. Captured personnel being paraded and manipulated in this way doesn't fool anyone," Blair said. "What the Iranians have to realize is that if they continue in this way, they will face increasing isolation."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_6510000/newsid_6510200/6510287.stm?bw=nb&mp=wm
On 4 June 2004, eight British servicemen were detained for three days, after Iran said they had entered Iranian territorial waters. They were released unharmed, but their equipment was not returned. During their detention, according to former detainee Marine Scott Fallon, they endured a mock execution and appeared blindfolded and forced to apologize for their "mistake" on Iranian TV..
http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=721052004
Regarding enrichment of uranium, Iranian President Mahmaoud Ahmadinejad abruptly cancelled his appearance before the U.N. security council and in his stead, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki Iran spoke. He indicated that Iran was willing to continue negotiations but without the precondition that uranium enrichment must be halted.
Mottaki said, "the world has two options to proceed on the nuclear issue: continued negotiations or confrontation. Choosing the path of confrontation ... will have its own consequences. "
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070325/D8O3E7J00.html
The U.N. security council unanimously voted to expand sanctions on March 24, 2007. The new resolution 1747 calls on Iran to comply fully with all previous UN resolutions and join negotiations to reach agreement so as to restore international confidence in the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. Full transparency and cooperation with the IAEA are required. Suspension of Iran’s banned nuclear activities will elicit the parallel suspension of sanctions. The package of incentives offered Tehran last year for its cooperation remains on the table. The full text of the draft of resolution 1747 appears at this website:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6455853.stm
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2007-03-31 21:44:25
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answer #7
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answered by Anonymous
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