Will China be the super power of the world by 2020?

Question

As of now, the U.S is the super power of the world. Some predict that China will claim that title by 2020.

Answer 1

Now there's a scary thought.

Answer 2

China already is a Super Power and wields more clout than the U.S.of A has in best of times. Some years ago there was a conference if leaders of all Religious or Spiritual Organizations.

It included every group large or small, concerned with the promotion of spiritualism, except the Deli Lama. Why? Because the non-partisan, non-governmental organizers did not want to offend China. When was the last time you saw America generate that kind of concern.

On the economic side, if China chose to switch the bulk of it's Foreign Cash Reserves from the US Dollar to the Euro there would be chaos on Wall Street. Thankfully that's why they didn't do it when the Euro started gaining strength.

The question isn't, If or When, it's how are we going to deal with it.

Answer 3

China is experiencing a boom right now, catching up to some extent by developing a seriously underdeveloped labor market. China has some serious problems though. The standard of living for Chinese workers is very low because GDP per capita (in PPP nonetheless) is only $7600, and the savings rate is exceedingly high. Despite a surge in domestic interest in the Chinese stock market, the Chinese are having a lot of trouble directing their savings toward productive, domestic investment. They are using a lot of their savings to prop up the U.S. (keeping their currency pegged and the interest rate on U.S. treasury notes low, etc.). That's not really helping them build a strong domestic economy. A reduction in the savings rate would do China a lot of good in some ways but harm the export businesses that the government has worked so hard to develop. The moral of my economic ramblings is that it will take a long time for the Chinese economy to approach North American/ Western European levels of allocative or macro. efficiency.

Also, it is important to consider that the Chinese have foreign aspirations that go only as far as their national interest (pretty strictly defined). They won't be exercising their mite on behalf of the oppressed, and their popular culture is unlikely to have much appeal anywhere (just look at the pop stars who try to look as cro-magnon as possible). Chinese soft power will be limited to China's ability to pay for goods and services and the welfare that people derive from their cheap goods, which wouldn't be so cheap if the wages of industrial workers were high enough, in real terms, to sustain a decent standard of living.

In real politik, one has to consider that he U.S., the Europeans, Canada, Australia, etc. have about as many people as China; they have more inclination to involve themselves in situations beyond their own borders; and they are and will remain a lot richer. Even China's population and growth rate are countered by India's. While India is less homogeneous than China, it has stronger ties to the West and a more powerful, more spread out expatriate community than China has. While the future of China's domestic politics is hard to predict, in IR, I see China being the big odd-man-out.

In summary, I can't imagine China ever becoming "the" superpower. I apologize for the rambling nature of my diatribe.

Since this question is ostensibly about economics, I am shocked by the lack of sophistication in the other answers that have been offered. It is important to remember that very few countries today have ever provided environments conducive to sustainable economic growth, and those that have (the U.S., the U.K., Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the Nordic countries) bear very little resemblance to China, in policies or culture. I am not saying that China will not become more economically efficient according to the neoliberal paradigm -- just that it will take China a very, very long time to catch up.

Answer 4

In a word - yes. You can already see the shift of investment away from western countries, epecially America, into China and the surrounding countries. Even India is purchasing large business's (like British Steel).

So the Asia region, and especially China wlll be the econoic powers of the next decades. And in this day and age, economic power is the definition of a super-power.

Answer 5

At this rate it will be well before 2020. China and India will become the defacto economic superpowers by the end of this decade. It will be fascinating to see if America and Russia can maintain military superiority w/out the cash or if the US will suffer the fate of the old USSR and become a rump of States w. Europe taking the helm.

Answer 6

Maybe i am wrong but Amerika has a lot of debt and and the highest rate is to China so i woulden't be surprise.

Also countries who sell the oil prefer much more to sell it over in China than US.

Answer 7

The Bible says no. In the book of Revelation it talks about the super powers. And in the time period we are in it says that now is the time for the people to turn on false religion. And after that God's day will come. SO I do not believe that there will be any other super powers to come.

Answer 8

Wont happen. Its gonna take a lot more than 13 years for the Chinese to catch up in all the things they are behind in.

Answer 9

I hope they dont , that would be awful for the world.
the worst is that they have all the chance to get a huge military power , almost half of human population is china

Answer 10

Gee i hope not.Chinese people procreate prolifically and there are no homosexuals in China.