Which SEX OFFENDER RECIDIVISM statistic rate do we go by?

Question

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/crimoff.htm#sex

This link, which is BJS (the official Bureau of Justice Statistical site) says that sex offenders only have a 5.3% (EXTREMELY LOW) rate of recidivism. Now, that is factoring in all the sex offense statistics.

This is a cut and paste from that site - "Sex offenders were less likely than non-sex offenders to be rearrested for any offense"

This site gives a lot of facts that can be looked up and compared with actual statistics from the Bureau of Prisons.

-OR -

Do we go by sites like this:

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/71876/recidivism_among_sex_offenders.html

which is a site that says sex offenders have an EXTREMELY high rate of recidivism.

This site is at best a glorified BLOG - someones opinion. They give a lot of "facts" without supporting them.

Answer 1

I definitly wouldn't go by what they say on associatedcontent.
Here is a portion on the rates from the Center For Sex Offender Management
Myth:
"Most sex offenders reoffend."
Fact:
Reconviction data suggest that this is not the case. Further, reoffense rates vary among different types of sex offenders and are related to specific characteristics of the offender and the offense.

Persons who commit sex offenses are not a homogeneous group, but instead fall into several different categories. As a result, research has identified significant differences in reoffense patterns from one category to another. Looking at reconviction rates alone, one large-scale analysis (Hanson and Bussiere, 1998) reported the following differences:

child molesters had a 13% reconviction rate for sexual offenses and a 37% reconviction rate for new, non-sex offenses over a five year period; and
rapists had a 19% reconviction rate for sexual offenses and a 46% reconviction rate for new, non-sexual offenses over a five year period.
Another study found reconviction rates for child molesters to be 20% and for rapists to be approximately 23% (Quinsey, Rice, and Harris, 1995).
Individual characteristics of the crimes further distinguish recidivism rates. For instance, victim gender and relation to the offender have been found to impact recidivism rates. In a 1995 study, researchers found that offenders who had extrafamilial female victims had a recidivism rate of 18% and those who had extrafamilial male victims recidivated at a rate of 35%. This same study found a recidivism rate for incest offenders to be approximately 9% (Quinsey, Rice, and Harris, 1995).

It is noteworthy that recidivism rates for sex offenders are lower than for the general criminal population. For example, one study of 108,580 non-sex criminals released from prisons in 11 states in 1983 found that nearly 63% were rearrested for a non-sexual felony or serious misdemeanor within three years of their release from incarceration; 47% were reconvicted; and 41% were ultimately returned to prison or jail (Bureau of Justice Statistics).

It is important to note that not all sex crimes are solved or result in arrest and only a fraction of sex offenses are reported to police. The reliance on measures of recidivism as reflected through official criminal justice system data (i.e., rearrest or reconviction rates) obviously omits offenses that are not cleared through an arrest (and thereby cannot be attributed to any individual offender) or those that are never reported to the police. For a variety of reasons, many victims of sexual assault are reluctant to invoke the criminal justice process and do not report their victimization to the police. For these reasons, relying on rearrest and reconviction data underestimates actual reoffense numbers.

http://www.csom.org/pubs/mythsfacts.html

Answer 2

Well, it's generally more useful to trust statistics where they are direct from the source, rather than unsupported. So, a govt site that tracks convictions is likely going to be more accurate than someone who is guessing or expressing an opinion.

Then again, remember that the term "sex offender" is largely without meaning. As an official category, it can include crimes ranging from rape and child molestation all the way down to streaking or urinating in public. So, if you are going to use any statistics or any category, it's important to keep in mind exactly what is included in that set.

Answer 3

From everything I've heard on the news, you can't "cure" a sex offender. They WILL offend again! They WILL destroy more lives.

Answer 4

We go by fear. The highest rate quoted will stick in our heads, especially when it is on the news every night.