Are we headed for the next great depression?

Question

Looking at what is hapenning with the housing market, the economy in general, consumer debt, health care etc...is this country headed for the next Great Depression? If so when would you say this would occur? Will it be the same, less or worse than the previous great depression?

This question was pertaining to the U.S.

Answer 1

The housing market is experiencing some bumps from subprime lending to those with poor credit. Will this hurt us? No. It will hopefully end the rocketing increases in housing costs in parts of the country.

We've had above average, SOLID economic growth since the summer of 2003 (weaker economic growth followed the last recession in 1Q 2001, and the 9/11 attacks, and the few high-profile corporate scandals). Unemployment is at 4.5%. The primary worry is inflation, but we're talking keeping it under 3.5%, not 12% like in the 70s.

The Great Depression started in 1930 and lasted, realistically until WWII. It was provoked by a lot of margin buying of stocks (back then the margin was 90%, meaning you could buy 10 shares with the cost of 1... until a margin call where you had to come up with the additional 90%. Today the margin is 50% (buy two for the price of 1), so that kind of disaster can't happen). This destroyed many companies who were trying to get more capital to expand, but later crushed them when their shares were suddenly worth a fraction of what they were. The ripple effect affected the entire world.

We have no indicators showing anything like that could happen again today.

Answer 2

You say "in this country" To which country are you referring? Germany? Britain? France? Or might I hazard a guess The USA? The answer is no. The " Great Depression" like the "Great War" or World War Two or Typhoon Mary.of which there is only one.....whatever; is a proper noun so there cannot be a next "Great Depression" There may well be a sharp economic decline in some countries but none will ever match in scale of what happened between 1926 and 1939.in THE DEVELOPED WORLD AT THE TIME! That is why it was called the Great Depression.......Of course it remains to be seen when the USA will pay back the 19 Trillion pounds it has borrowed from the British or how an unstable country like China with all its potential for economic mayhem will influence the course of events.........As long as we can keep on maintaining wars we in the west will remain free from the extreme economic instability similar to what you call the Great Depression in your country.

Answer 3

OK, great deppressions might be a thing of the past but...

@73% of the US economic system is based on consumer spending that can be lived without.

Meaning all the American consumer needs is the concept of "fear" to cut way back on spending.. fear of losing a job, fear of losing a house, fear of losing economic prosperity, fear of another American city being nuked by terrorism, fear of global warming being way out of control, fear of whatever reason..

Economic downturns are still possible.. the people who manipulate the markets will do whatever they can to try to improve things.

Another concept which cannot be swept under the sidewalks is debt. The US government debt, the corporate debt, and the consumer debt which all combined exceed the $13 trillion dollar GDP by @300%.

With massive debt it would be easy for the financially over extended to go into default setting off a chain reaction, or domino effect that spills over into the stronger parts of the markets...

The market is always right.. even when it starts a massive unraveling that cannot be stopped for whatever reason...

The government has painted itself into a corner by issuing more cash every economic downturn this country has seen since the great depression.

The day will come when issuing more cash will be something next to meaningless as it is hyperinflating away into absolute nothingness.

[so all the new poor people can be be left holding worthless bags of cash with no real property]

Does this help any?

Answer 4

It won't happen again most likely.

The Great Depression was caused by many factors.
One included the Smoot-Hawley Tariff that raised tariffs. As with most protectionism, foreign countries retaliated with higher tariffs of their own.

Another reason is the Fed. When money supply is increased should be in a recession. Instead the Fed decreased money supply thus making it more "scarce". People couldn't get a hold of money to start new businesses and help their old ones.

The crash of 1929 started all of it, but there were many factors that made it an actual "great" depression. The odds of it happening again are rare. The Fed knows a little more about what it is doing and our international trade is less geared towards protectionism.

Answer 5

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Helping you eliminate depression?

Answer 6

LMAO.....In General???? you're clueless! this is actually the best economy in the history of our country. The biggest problem is stupid people getting in over their heads in buying what they cant afford! If Americans lived within their means, we wouldn't have this problem. Fact is interest rates were lowered and the housing market flooded the market. Low interest created an illusion that folks buying thought they could afford. In reality they didn't get a FIXED RATE! Thats the consumer mistake. Health care has also been reported much lower in numbers in last weeks report! You didnt see that one either. An independent study showed the Liberal's inflated the number from 2004 on! Unemployment is stil at 4.4 to 4.5 percent. Its been that way for almost 2 years. Thats never happened in our history. What is causing the most damage to our country is illegals! With numbers of 12 to 20 million, the American tax payer is footing that bill!

Answer 7

No, probably not. There are going to be a few bumps along the road but we should be OK for at least the next couple years. Another serious terrorist attack in this country or heavy increases in taxation could trigger a medium to severe recession though.

Answer 8

yeah, well we're probably due for a recession, but anything like the great depression would be very very extreme

Answer 9

which country ?