I see that they have predicted a bad hurricane season again, last one was a dud, what about this one?

Question

The same private weather forecasting company that predicted a hurricane season in 2006 that would be as bad or worse than 2005, has predicted another bad season. 2006 was a complete dud compared to their forecast, and the same people get front page notice for making another scary prediction? You would think that we would have learned from last year not to believe people that claim they can see the future, if the hurricanes happen, they happen, if they don't they don't. The mechanisms that give birth to these storms is far too complex for even the best forecasters and computers to predict 24 hours in advance, what makes these people think they can predict up to a year in advance?

Answer 1

Accuweather was the one who made the dire predictions of terrible hurricanes striking the northeast. The problem with their prediction is that it didnt take into account how strong the el nino was. El nino makes much of the Atlantic basin very unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. this year however is different with the la nina. Durning La Nina, conditions are very much improved meaning more storms with a higher likelyhood of major storms (category 3 and above). More storms means the better the chance of landfall

Prediction of tropical cyclones is extremely difficult but the long range forecasts come from looking into the past and seeing what conditions led to more or less tropical developement.

Look for Dr William Grays predictions coming up soon, they are the benchmark in the Hurricane field

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

Answer 2

Honestly people don't really pay attention to last years predictions. And the U.S. is really self centered when it comes to hurricanes and typhoons. Last year was a fairly bad typhoon year. It is true that we are just being to understand how hurricanes form, and many scientist do not feel that predicting the amount of hurricanes early in the year is accurate. This might be what is going on. They are trying to make a point about global warming, even though all major hurricane researchers have stated that global warming has little to no effect on hurricanes. Hurricanes are weather and are not extremely effected by that type of climate change.

Answer 3

Do you think that the US is the only country to get hurricanes? The prediction for last year's season turned out to be fairly accurate for the season itself. Remember that the US is just one of many countries that will experience hurricanes every year.

Answer 4

Meteorologist have tools and the knowledge to predict the upcoming hurricane season. They first look at the type of pattern that may in store during the summer season. They look at the current water temps. If the temps now are warmer than usual, the chances of having another warmer than normal ocean temp is likely.