explain how you would use the following techniques in forecasting?

Question

time series analsis ,the delphi method .evalute the usefullness of forcasting to large businesses

Answer 1

Time-series are used to evaluate THIS period against past periods, using quant data relevant to business ratios, etc.

Delphi is used to look at what managers "think" is going on, normally using questionnaires.


Both types of analysis are useful in various ways to businesses.....the problem, along with financial statements, are that they are backward-looking.

Answer 2

The Delhi Method, I would use for decision making forecasting as an exploratory method, and series analysis I would use as a quantitative method.

The objective of most Delphi applications is the reliable and creative exploration of ideas or the production of suitable information for decision making. The Delphi Method is based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback (Adler and Ziglio, 1996). According to Helmer (1977) Delphi represents a useful communication device among a group of experts and thus facilitates the formation of a group judgement. Wissema (1982) underlines the importance of the Delphi Method as a monovariable exploration technique for technology forecasting. He further states that the Delphi method has been developed in order to make discussion between experts possible without permitting a certain social interactive behavior as happens during a normal group discussion and hampers opinion forming. Baldwin (1975) asserts that lacking full scientific knowledge, decision-makers have to rely on their own intuition or on expert opinion. The Delphi method has been widely used to generate forecasts in technology, education, and other fields (Cornish, 1977).