When will beings from other planets finally make first contact with us humans?

Question

Are we still too primitive for them? We have Playstation 3 and Youtube for chrissake. How much more advanced do we have to be?

Answer 1

The moment we get robot butlers and hovercars. The aliens are waiting for us to invent hovercars.

Seriously, chances are not for a very long time, if ever.

Here's the problem: They may not even exist, at least not in our galaxy.

To begin, the conditions that conspired to create life on earth are incomprehensibly rare. Sure, there are plenty of earth-like planets out there, but here are some very very very rare things that you need for life to start on one of them.

1. Lots of radioactive material in the crust. Without a certain level of ambient radiation, evolutions progresses much slower, if at all.

2. The Moon. You have no idea how rare it is for a planet our size to have a moon THAT size. Look at all the other moons in our Solar System: They're all TINY compared to their parent planet! It came about through a STAGGERINGLY unlikely collision where a planetoid the size of mars smacked into us, but not directly, sort of SKIPPED off at an angle, getting torn apart and vaporized in the process, at a time when the earth was very young, (and molten already.) The angle it had to hit at, from simulations, had to be within less than a hundredth of a degree. Without a moon of the proper size, lots of bad things happen:

* We get pounded by meteors and end up looking like, well, the current moon.

* We never stabilize our rotation and climate goes all to hell.

* Our magnetic field never stabilizes and the solar wind rips our atmosphere out.

* We don't have the tidal forces to flex our crust - That means not enough ambient radiation.

* We have no lunar tides - That means we never emerge from the ocean.

3. Jupiter - Without Jupiter cleaning up the solar system, (and a gas giant the size of Jupiter is pretty damn rare,) we get pounded by meteors into a bloody pulp, moon or no moon. You wanna know how much? Look at the asteroid belt. That's how much.

4. The Sun - Believe it or not, the Sun is pretty unusual. It's a single star. Most stars are binaries. God knows what happens to us in a binary system. Remember item #3, Jupiter? Jupiter was supposed to by the Sun's sister in a binary system. It just never accreted enough mass to ignite it's hydrogen.

5. Our location - There's only a small subsection of our galaxy, or any galaxy, that's habitable. Closer to the center and the ambient radiation from our primordial black hole cooks you even if the gravitational forces from collisions between solar systems doesn't rip you to shreds. Further away and there aren't very many stars, and those that are there don't have enough matter to form stable, long-lived singular stars with matter left over for planets.

To be fair, this is an unresolved question in Astronomy and Cosmology. There are arguments that there HAVE to be other forms of life in our universe. The most compelling one: There are 100 BILLION other stars in our galaxy alone, and about a SEPTILLION (1 followed by 24 zeroes,) in the universe. That's an awful lot of chances to roll a twelve.

However, consider that our galaxy is roughly 100,000 light years around. We've been transmitting radio and TV and SETI signals for, say, 60 years. Be generous and account for artificial lights, and call it 100 years. We've still gotta wait another 99,900 years to go before all those signals make it to the outer reaches of the galaxy, another 100,000 years before they answer, and God knows how long before they could actually PHYSICALLY visit, since nobody appears to be in any danger of breaking the speed of light any time soon.

Finally you have to contend with the Fermi paradox. Fermi was famously attributed as saying "Where are they?" His point was that since our Solar System is very young, and the rest of the universe is so much older compared to us, if we WEREN'T alone, we'd have already been visited by now. We haven't been visited, therefore there's nobody to visit us. It's a compelling argument, since the rest of the galaxy and universe around us is so much older that our solar system. Indeed, it's very close to the your original question!

Answer 2

There is a general rule developed by the Grand Confederation of Worlds that says contact cannot be made until a planet has been war-free for at least 500 years and all traces of tribalism/nationalism have disappeared. About 2/3 of candidate civilizations do not survive this period, either lapsing into barbarity or extinguishing themselves outright. The exception is the development of space travel. Immature colonies will be quietly extinguished if they show any signs of violence. Conditionally, we are approaching the ripening point but much can go wrong. If we behave ourselves, we'll be a probational member within 800 years.

Answer 3

its a question of probablilty.
Base it on the Drake-equation to get an idea how unique it is to have a planet with intelligent life.
next planet with intelligent life ? .. let me guess.. hmm other side of the galaxy .. too bad .. if the laws in physics are the same on their side it's very doubtful if such a species would ever be able to even communicate with us

if it is a question of our level of cleverness... well..

i bet they gonna make contact when men learned to flip down the toilet seat

Answer 4

Who says they have not? There have been claims by individuals that they have been abducted and studied.
My concern is, with the condition of our planet, why have alien life forms not prevented humans from exploring outer space?
As is, "trash/junk" is being left in space to litter it up!
I suspect that more intelligent forms have been watching (and probably laughing), just waiting to see what is left when we are all gone.

Answer 5

It depends. They may be going through diplomatic channels to do it right now. Then again, our galaxy is a large place, so they might just need time. If they got a signal from us last year that we sent out 40 years ago, then it would take at least 40 years for a reply to get back to us. It could be on its way right now...

Answer 6

They are much too far away to even realize we are even here. Besides that, they are still in their hunter gatherer period and won't become civilized for another 25,000 years. By that time we will be extinct.

Answer 7

What makes you so sure that any alien civilization even know about our little planet here at the fringes of the galaxy?

Answer 8

Hopefully one day SETI will receive a transmission that will verify that we are not alone..
Any prediction of when is not possible,it could be to-morrow or never.
For now they will have to remain a theory but it seems impossible that we are alone

Answer 9

In the past because they would most likely be time travelers and or artificial life forms with wings.

Answer 10

We are a blade of grass in a huge forest. So I say not anytime soon.