Isn't there something wrong with the gibbons-and-typewriters hypothesis? If so, what?

Question

That given an infinite number of gibbons on typewriters, one of them will eventually write the works of Shakespeare?

Answer 1

I think so.
The likelyhood that even the first line would ever be produced is so remote as to be impossible.
No one ever mentions that the gibbon would need to press the return key at the end of every line, nor add more paper etc etc.

No this is impossible regardless of how long you have, how many gibbons or how many typewritters.

I believe a serious statitician (I am not one) would say that there comes a point where an outcome is so unlikely that it can be deemed impossible.

I think its a good question because you hear it banded about but I think its one of those popular misconceptions.

Answer 2

I would argue that there is indeed a small flaw - whilst I agree that the term infinite implies that everything possible will happen at some point, if a boundary condition is say, the Earth, then there should be a finite number of gibbons and typewriters (+/- a small tolerance at any precise moment).

Also, neither gibbons nor typewriters last forever, so there would only be a finite time for the gibbons to plagiarise the Bard before breaking their typewriter.

As you know, this is a very old hypothesis and there are much stricter controls on the UK working time directive these days. Plus, I'm sure if the Gibbons were union led, they would not be at all happy if one of their members came down with a case of repetitive strain injury.

I believe it is much, much quicker and significantly cheaper to outsource the whole activity. Perhaps even offshore it. Even better, just lie about the results - and claim a knighthood.

The Gibbons would, I suspect, be better employed and achieve higher job satisfaction, as consultants on a legal help line call centre, advising people who wish to claim against their employer, for issues such as poor VDU lighting conditions and work related stress.

I hope this answers your question.
Always help to help - hypothetically of course.

bw.

Answer 3

The words infinite and eventually are the clue. Typewriters are no longer being made and gibbons are in short supply these days. The odds of getting one six letter word correct is about that of winning the lottery so even the first sentence would take longer than the lifespan of one gibbon.

Answer 4

From a probability standpoint, anytime you have infinite time (and therefore infinite attempts) to do something, it will happen. In fact, it MUST happen sooner or later - the infinitely small possibility grows to 100% when given infinite attempts - whether it's gibbons writing Shakespeare, coins coming up heads a trillion times in a row, or dealing yourself a royal flush a quadrillion times in a row! Given infinite time, everything that is statistically possible can & must happen, regardless of its likelihood.

Of course, who among us has infinite time to wait for gibbons to write Shakespeare?

Answer 5

The only problem with this hypothesis is that there is only an finite amount of gibbons and typewriters.

Answer 6

It's true as stated. In fact, infinitely many copies of Shakespeare would appear.

However, when it's stated as "1 million years" or something like that, the numbers are always absurdly low.