Why are the stock market analysts wrong in predicting the market trend most of the times.?

Question

Mark faber is always predicting Doom, most others also talk of sensex at 11000.,WHY are they almost always wrong.

Answer 1

Be it Markets

or

be it Weather


the Forcasts

always go in the opposite direction ..... !@#$%^



Sentiments
and
Technical Analyses

are not .................. Uni-directional

.

Answer 2

There are indicators that make the market somewhat predictable, but with the advent of the computer and electronic investing, everybody can panic over news immediately. And, larger owners of stock can sell immediately without rumor or propoganda. The larger investors do this methodically while they buy options to cover their moves to make a profit from them. If you have enough money to bring the market down 2-3%, or if your words can trigger the market because you are a recognized expert, or if you have authority to talk about market influences or change interest rates, you can stimulate investors to make moves based on their fears. Face it, most people are reactors, it just takes some a little more stimulus to react, kinda like that flinching contest that used to go on in high school, bullies verses wimps. So with this stimulus going on, generally the market still moves up but it takes roller coaster rides from stimulus now and it is a little harder to cash in on, kinda like timing a wave. There are those who have become more expert at it. Some of the people are gonna be right some of the time. I would not use the word "always".

Answer 3

Stock market is a crystal ball that EVERYONE is looking into with lots of views, angles and forecasting methods.

It is no different than all of the folks predicting hurricanes, tornadoes and earth-quakes. They are all good with great intentions, and superb systems. Some are just more right than others.

I've been following Marc since 1997 and he is just an 'extreme predictor'. He will predict a huge fall and if he is right then he will make a lot of money since he will sell a TON of subscriptions to his letter.

So, follow a consensus of analysts if you cannot do the homework, or just start making this a life time journey and learn it yourself.

Good luck friend. Good question.

KKP

Answer 4

The serious spending cuts are what caused the market to fall on fears of a double dip recession. Like it or not, government spending creates demand in the private sector. Decreased government spending = decreased demand = decreased growth = falling market. Luckily, some of us anticipated this, sold high and now have available cash to shop Wall Street's clearance sale.

Answer 5

Any analysts will answer only on the data available. In case of wrong data or wrong timing it so happen the prediction is going wrong. Especially in indian condition we find almost all the data available or time barred or not correct. In that condition it is highly impossible to expect the correct results.

Answer 6

Hi,

Firstly all the analysts are human person and they may be wrong like all the rest people on the Earth.

Secondly it is possible that mayby they are interested financially in wrong forecasts from time to time.

NOTE: The best analyst and advisor in the world is yourself, your knowledge and your brain.

Answer 7

Prediction is given by a few expert whereas actual players are in thousands, so there has to be a mismatch. You may however observe that prediction on specific shares are generally correct.

Answer 8

There are two kinds of analysts, good ones and the reverse.

The good ones are too busy earning good money for themselves, the others work for the media and financial companies because they cannot earn their own income from the market.

Answer 9

They are just like me and you. We guess.
Don't listen to anyone on stock recommendations especially if they say it's guarantee to make money.
If so, why is he not puting all his money into it.
You just have to do the research or buy ETFs.
I prefer buying ETFs, less headache.

Answer 10

They're in the business to make themselves and their companies money, not you & me. Many of these "experts" simply don't understand business.