Should I do this Fantasy Baseball trade?

Question

Victor Martinez
David Ortiz
Jason Bay

for

Vernon Wells
Carlos Lee
Aramis Ramirez

I'm giving up Wells, Lee, and Ramirez. It's mostly a power-based league. My catcher right now is Kenji Johjima so I'm getting a big upgrade there.

Well, it's only a 3-person league with me and two friends.

I also have David Wright, Garrett Atkins, and Ryan Zimmerman at 3rd so I will be fine there.

Answer 1

So several points. You are getting an upgrade at catcher, but at what cost?

I'd probably make the trade, but not by as much as you seem to think. Let's go into detail:

You're giving up Carlos Lee who will have a great season hitting in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park in Houston. Aramis Ramirez is one of the top 3B, but that is a deep position with value to be found. And Vernon Wells is a multi-tool guy who will get you good accross the board stats.

On the other side, V-Mart is one of the best catchers, so gotta like that, and one of few that can get you consistent average and power. David Ortiz is just a monster. Jason Bay is on a troubling trend, though. His value is outweighing his actual production at this point. Speed is trending alarmingly downwards, as are all his numbers. I see him continuing that slide on the woeful Pirates.

So here's the nearest matchup of the trade.

David Ortiz for Carlos Lee - You come out ahead, but Lee is a fantastic player whose numbers could actually get close to Ortiz.

Jason Bay for Vernon Wells - Wells is the MUCH better option here. Bay is trending too far downwards, and you don't want to ride a sinking ship.

Victor Martinez for Aramis Ramirez - This is the crux of the trade. Before this, you are noticeably behind on the trade. And the valuation here is debatable. Martinez represents an upgrade at catcher for you, so the question is how much of a downgrade you are now taking at 3B. If you have a good backup, then you come out ahead. If you are replacing him with a Mark Teahen type player, you're losing huge here, and not making up for it in your catcher upgrade.

The in depth analysis actually means this may not be the best trade. As tempting as Ortiz is, Carlos Lee is not THAT far off his numbers. You take a hit in the OF in going from Wells to Bay if Bay's numbers continue to decline. And you are upgrading catcher, but at what cost to your 3B option? That's the question it all hinges on.

Bear in mind that Johjima is a pretty good catcher option, just not on the tier with the big 3 (Mauer, McCann, and V-Mart).

Good luck whatever you decide to do!

Answer 2

This is a great trade. Your getting a better 1b, a great OF (better then Lee and your gaining one of the best catchers. Your giveing up a lot too. As long as you have a 3ber to replace Ramirez this is a good trade. (secondly you can trade Kenji to upgrade in another position)

Ortiz for Ramirez + for you
Bay For Lee + for you
Victor Martinez for Wells - for you

That means 2-1 good trade

PS In yahoo Ortiz is listed as a 1b/util So he may play 1b only in national league parks but you dont care because he can be used in either!

Answer 3

hey platland, ortiz is a dh, who only plays first when he is at a national league park, he will have maybe a few weeks a year for eligibilty at 1st... martinez will play some 1b this year though as well as catcher...

Answer 4

that trade is pretty much even. So i would stick with what I have.

Answer 5

in my eyes this is a steal for you, do it

Answer 6

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!KEEP ORTIZ, HE WILL BE A MONSTER THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!