if a is 65 years old. b is 70 and d 75. what is the probability of each of them being alive in 10 years?

Question

assuming that all are in reasonable health and live in the uk

Answer 1

16000/1 being killed in a road accident, 750,000/1 killed in a train crash, 1,000,000/1 being killed in a plane crash.

Answer 2

Not nearly enough information to solve. You would need to know the average and the standard deviation of the life expectancy of people born in the UK for each year that those folks were born.

As an approximation, you could assume that it hadn't changed much between 65 and 75 years ago. Nonetheless, you can't use reported life expectancies now as they are typically reported for populations born in the year given.

But assuming the average is 73 and the sigma is 5, then the probabilities of them being alive in 10 years are:

75...0.8% (probability being alive at 85)
70...8.1%
65....34.5%

Answer 3

The probability can be determined by looking up the appropriate mortality tables. These could either be determined from assured lives (those which take out life assurance or annuitants), or from population mortality.

These tables are obtainable from the appropriate source below. Note that tables are based on historic data, and mortality tends to improve over time so you might want to allow for this somehow.

Answer 4

Not really enough info. BUT assuming they are all of average lifestyle and average health, one would assume the probability of any of them being alive in 10 years is equal. Taking into account accidents.............
Just a guess !!!

Answer 5

Hopefully so but if they have won the lottery tthey are 7 times likelier to be struck by lightening and they are more likely to be killed by a coconut than a shark.

So tell MR a b and c to stay away from lottery winners that have electric sharks who like coconuts.

Answer 6

Hopefully pretty high probability as so many of us in those brackets.