Both the man and the woman agreed they used a condom. The show quoted the chances of a condom failing are one in a hundred. Then they revealed the paternity test done on an unborn baby naming the man as the father. The chances of the paternity test being correct were quoted as 9 out of ten. Correct me if im wrong but doesn’t this mean if 100 men have sex all using a condom only one will fail, but if all the woman get pregnant and paternity test are done on all the men at least ten of the paternity tests will be wrong.
Surely there was still only a one in ten chance he was the father
2007-03-14 10:47:13 · 5 answers · asked by ian m 2 in Science & Mathematics ➔ Other - Science
Most paternity test have a much higher degree of certainty than that. Are you sure you have thew facts correct? If you do then your assumptions are correct.
2007-03-14 10:57:15 · answer #1 · answered by Controlfreak38 6 · 0⤊ 0⤋
There is more than one method to determine paternity. The best paternity tests are more like 95-99% accurate. The only variable here is the paternity test. If the statical accuracy of the particular test method is 90%. Then there is a 10% chance the test is wrong, this could be a false negative or false positive. You could take this question further with more relevant information, Like how many men did the women have sex with during the month of conception. If the answer is 1 then there is a 100% chance he is the father. The rate of condom failure is irrelevant.
2007-03-14 18:31:31 · answer #2 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
No. Regardless of how many men the woman slept with, regardless of how many condoms did or did not break she's still pregnant and only one of her lovers can possibly be the father. The condom statistics have no bearing on the paternity test. They are statistically separate issues because a paternity test is not a pregnancy test. She only needs the paternity test after she's already proven pregnant. If the paternity test is correct 9 of 10 times then, no matter how many men she slept with (even if nobody used a condom), there's still only a one in ten chance he's NOT the father.
2007-03-14 18:18:27 · answer #3 · answered by Diogenes 7 · 1⤊ 0⤋
There is some faulty logic here. You are combining two independent events to arrive at a statistical conclusion. That is not the way statistics work.
If the paternity test showed that there was a 90% chance that the man in question was the father. Then that is exactly what the chance is 9 out of 10.
2007-03-14 17:56:53 · answer #4 · answered by Curiosity 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
I think that leaves a 1 in 1000 chance of him being the father
2007-03-17 20:25:01 · answer #5 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋