Why is it that if we are faced with a 50:50 choice there is a 75% chance of getting it wrong ?

Answer 1

I think this is variant of the guessing what's in the box problem.

Say there are 4 boxes - 3 containing nothing and 1 containing £1000. You are invited to choose one box at randomn. Your chances of getting the £1000 are 1 in 4 - 25%. Similarly your chances of having an empty box are 3 in 4 - 75%.

Now say two boxes are opened and found to be empty. You are then given the option of swapping the box you originally selected for the remaining box. If you swap, your chances of getting the box containing £1000 are now 1 in 2 (ie 50%) whereas if you keep the box you originally chose, you are staying with the choice where you only had a 25% chance of being right and getting the box with the money in. So if you don't take the box with the 50% chance of containing the money, you retain a 75% chance of having an empty box.

So the argument goes, if you're ever on Deal or No Deal and are given the option to swap your box, you should take it.

Answer 2

We have a 50:50 chance of getting something correct (or not) lets assume we aim for correctness.

Of that 50% chance we have (to find the correct result) we are faced with another 50:50 element, which is, do we really know the answer or are we just assuming it is correct?

Therefore we only get a 25% chance of getting it correct (75% chance of getting it wrong).

Answer 3

I do believe that your statement is mathematically flawed. It's worthwhile to remember that just because there is a 50:50 chance of an outcome, it doesn't necessarily mean that the actual outcome will match this.
You could toss a coin 100 times and it COULD come down heads every time. It's not very LIKELY but it could happen. The actual outcome still doesn't alter the mathematical odds before the actual event has taken place.

Answer 4

Its based on Murphy's law; if anything can go wrong it will

also see the collective laws of S-D

chance of success is inversely proportional for the desire of success, in other words the more you want it the less likely you are to get it,

This explains why you never win the lottery but always win a special kitchen installation discount when the phone rings

edit

Nearly forgot:

1 in one million chances allways work 9 time out of ten (Terry pratchett)

Answer 5

you could either leave the question out (considered as wrong) or answer it; 50/50 chance

and

if you answer you can either get it right or wrong 50/50 chance

Conclusion:
75% chance of getting it wrong :):)

Answer 6

dude something can ensue bro, take suiza vs spain as an occasion. whilst 2 communities step right into a container nothings certain. If I have been directive i might concentration on the extra youthful gamers and seem for clean skills becasue a large style of the veterans are going to retire after this tournaments(Blanco, Marquez, Salcido for particular and maximum possibly Osorio, Franco and Torrado.)

Answer 7

Because some people only have a 25% chance of getting it wrong.
Test it for yourself, guess either odd or even before throwing a die (singular of dice), and see how successful you are at guessing the right choice.

Answer 8

Simply.... we are human and we all make mistakes!!! The decision we make at the time will always seem to be the right one, its usually only after we either reap the reward or not..... I hope you made the right choice babe

Answer 9

Tell me about it! That always happens to me. I choose one thing and then it turns out the other thing was right/better. It's called "Sod's Law".

Answer 10

I agree with that, i think better things happen when you aint forcing them too.