probability?

Question

Three member of a private country deed have been nominated for the office of president the probability that Mr. Adams will be elected is 0.3, the probability that Mr. brown will be elected is 0.5, and the probability that Mr. cooper will be elected is 0.2.Should Mr. Adams be elected, the probability for an increase in membership fees is 0.8 should Mr. brown or Mr. cooper be elected, the corresponding probability for an increase in fees are 0.1 and 0.4. If saw one is considering joining the one out delay his decision several weeks only to find out that the fees have been increases. What is the probability that Mr. Cooper was elected president of the club?

Answer 1

The probability of Adams being elected, then rasing dues is (.3)(.8) = .24

The probability of Brown being elected, then rasing dues is (.5)(.1) = .05

The probability of Cooper being elected, then rasing dues is (.2)(.4) = .08

Normalizing these probabilities (dividing by the total of the three, 0.37), gives the probability that each was elected, given that dues have been raised

P(Adams) = 0.24 / 0.37 = 0.649
P(Brown) = 0.05 / 0.37 = 0.135
P(Cooper) = 0.08 / 0.37 = 0.216

Answer 2

Hi friend...
I prefer this site is very useful for understanding probability. Which is usefull to me. May be You find answer in that website.


For better understanding and more learn:
===============================

http://www.futureaccountant.com/probability/

Answer 3

Too lon to read, make it short..