Daisuke Matsuzaka expectations? Be realistic.?

Question

Boston's $103 million pitcher allowed homers to two non-roster players, struggled with his control and even threw away a potential double-play grounder in his home debut against a major league team.

If he is getting tagged by non-roster players what do you think big time players are going to do to this guy?

Red Sox fans might want to lower their expectaions of this guy a little.

This isn't Japan guys. The hitters here are much more talented, stronger, and faster. You can't possibly expect this guy to win the same number of games in the majors as he did in Japan. He was 14-13 two years ago.

Answer 1

finally red sox fans have to realize that this guy is not as good as people think and have to stop making a big deal about him im tired of people saying hes the best and bla bla bla

Answer 2

The reality is that Mr Moto is nothing more than a triple A caliber pitcher masquerading as a major leaguer. Not only did Boston waste their money on this "pitcher" but they also wasted millions on JD (I'll never play in Philadelphia" Drew. The Red Sox are so desperate to compete with the Yankees they will just about do anything. Trust me, Matsuzaka will get lit up like a roman candle and once again the Beantowners will be the laughing stock of baseball. Hey Boston, it's not how much you spend, it's how you spend it!!

Answer 3

i'm not expecting much.

first he only pitched 23 innings in the world classic...some of those against a usa team that didn't have half of its starters.

second i wouldn't have paid a guy 53 mill when he's never won 20 IN JAPAN. where he pitched EVERY 6 DAY and where he gets hit hard by a college team..not even a very good one at that. and he's expected to dominate the AL EAST? LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL....that 53 mill could have been better spent on a real closer and middle relief help...hell they could have went out and made a deal for a pitcher and prospects.

i'll give him

11 to 13 wins.

9 to 11 loses

an era over 4

about 130 k's

Answer 4

First let me remind everyone about the last "Japaneses Ace" to start his major league career in the AL East Mr' Fat toad irabu. who was better in his Japaneses career than Matsuzaka. That said with the run support he'll get in Boston he should win 13-17 wins is achievable. if you translate his Japanese numbers to MLB they look something like 16-5, 170k's, 3.54 ERA or numbers more in common with the likes of Jason Schmidt than of a Roger Clemens in prime (which is still pretty good BTW). The main danger with Japanese pitchers is they like to pitch up in the zone with the heater and Matsuzaka is no exception. In MLB hitters are weened on pitches like that in double and triple a ball so they are much better at hitting a high heater than any other pitch. To illustrate last yr becket tried to rely on high heat to avoid his slider and the ensuing blister problems and you saw the result 5 + ERA.. Either way the AL East will add at least a half point to anyones ERA that includes the likes of Roger the rocket let alone Matsuzaka.

Now to bring some sanity to this discussion. Those of you who are crowning him an ace or the second coming of Pedro are in for a rude awakening. Only one japanese import has ever approached Ace status and that was Hideo Nomo in his 1st and a lesser extent 2nd full yrs and that playing in a pitches park in a pitcher friendly division and he was a more dominant pitcher than Matsuzaka in Japan, here are Nomo's stats from1996
33 games 16 wins 11 loses 234 k's 3.19 era
to contrast do you Boston fans remember his stats in Beantown here they are 2001
33 games 13 wins 11 loses 220k's 4.50 ERA
As a matter of fact outside of that pichers paradise they call Dodger stadium he never had an ERA under 4. to further emphasize my point his era while playing in the AL East was
5.42. Is it realistic to expect Matsuzaka to appreciably improve on Nomo's best numbers I don't think so. Believe the hype if you must but sometimes history teaches lessons the hard way. the Kid is very talented but to predict 18 wins something no Japnese player has ever done is asking much not to mention setting up the boobirds to to really damage this kids mind much like what happened to Irabu when he wasn't as good as hyped his mind was never the same and he lost his mental edge.
PS- CMA Cy Young? a Santana he is not and no scout anywhere has made such claims Rookie of the yr maybe but Cy young not a snowballs chance in hell.

Answer 5

It's spring training. There shouldn't be expectations because the players are just getting into playing shape, and getting their timing down. In my opinion though, he will be like Hideo Nomo. Teams wont know what to expect, having never faced him, and they may be a little intimidated. He will probably win 8-10 games by the break, and then hitters will start to time him better. After the break, I can see him winning 5-7 more.

Answer 6

He'll pitch well especially the first time through the league since hitters won't know how to hit him. But once he's through the league once, that'll change.

Still, if he's healthy there's no reason he can't win 15-18 games. He's been known as a durable pitcher, and he'll need to be over the long MLB season.

The real test for Matsuzaka will be next season when the league is more prepared for him.

Answer 7

15 - 11. 4.25 ERA. 120 K's. Nothing big, nothing at all. The Orioles r 1 of the worst teams in the MLB, and u give up 2 HR's 2 AAA players. What's he gonna do against the Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Angels, A's. Scary thought.

Answer 8

I really do believe he's the real deal. He was lights out in the WBC, and scouts who have watched him pitch are gushing over him. Most think that he was playing with some different pitches against the O's, which would account for the higher hit count, and is exactly what you want to see in a spring training game. Curt Schilling mentioned on his blog yesterday how good Dice-K is, and a lot of baseball analysts have talked about how it seems like he is able to handle the pressure of the Boston media well. You also can't discount the asset he is to the clubhouse in that he is getting a massive amount of media attention (and thus taking away attention from some players who don't thrive on it).

Most interesting is that in his previous start, the players all talked about seeing him throw the gyro ball against them, even though the Sox said he didn't throw it. Opposing players are totally psyched out, and it will only get worse if they have to face Wakefield before or after him. I can't wait to see him pitch in person.

Answer 9

Being a "non-roster player" does not mean you cant hit a 93 mph ball from matsuzaka, schilling, paplebon or any other major league pitcher. Matsuzaka has proven that he can pitch and compete in a major league level in the baseball classic. He will shut down many top hitters in mlb and will earn his money.

Answer 10

He'll win 14-15 games this season and be a solid number 4 man in the rotation behind Schilling, Beckett, & Papelbon.