The weather forecast is always wrong! Can anyone specifically tell me how reliable the weather forecast is?

Question

Please put the reliability of the weather forecast in a percentage if you can.

Answer 1

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Answer 2

This really depends on what is being forecast. The same event, such as a hurricane, can have different success rates for different aspects. Forecasting the path the hurricane will take is pretty accurate, but forecasting the intensity the hurricane will be is not.
Many meteorologists rely only on models from the computer to forecast. This is mainly why forecasts are wrong so often. Many meteorologists do not take the time to make their own forecast. The computer models do not do a good job of forecasting because they just cannot account for all of the variablitities of the atmosphere, at least not yet.

Answer 3

The percentage reliability you're asking for depends on what part of the forecast you're interested in. Most people are interested in temperature, since that's easily measured.

http://www.forecastadvisor.com has compared accuracy percentages for many locations in the US between the National Weather Service, Accuweather, the Weather Channel, etc. You might try there for starters. If you're interested in precip, that's probably a little harder to find online.

I will say however that your statement that the forecast is "always wrong" is itself completely wrong. Most forecasts are in fact quite accurate and useful. People have selective memories, and often only remember busted forecasts and easily forget the many times it's accurate.

Answer 4

Hello there,

While an unexpected rain shower soaking your picnic may make you question the skills of the local meteorologist, it must be acknowledged that weather forecasts are becoming more accurate. Today, predictions of general weather patterns some 5.5 days in the future are as accurate as those in 3.5 days made in the 70s.

The increasing sophistication of computerized weather prediction systems is a major reason for the improvement.

And the public must learn how to make better use of forecast information as well. A 20 percent chance of showers doesn't mean a guarantee that it will not rain!

Answer 5

This is the dumbest question ever and yes, there is such a thing as a stupid question.

Weather forecasting is about trying to put chaos theory into an actual, accurate science.

The reliability will vary by person, equipment, measurements, and the earth's dynamics in general, etc. The weather forecast gets better as it gets closer to the day of forecast. You also need to remember that even in one county the weather can be different so if your forecast comes from Dallas and you live 15 miles away, it might be different.

Answer 6

The weather forecast can at times be wrong but at times it is right. Why don't you try your own reliable forecast. Take a reef and leave it hanging outside your house. If it swells up, it will rain. If it doesn't, it will shine brightly. And if you want to know how reliable the weather forecast is, it would be 40%.

Answer 7

Weather forcast is really a tough job as predicting the nature's behavior is very difficult. So many factors have to be taken into account to give a correct forecast.So giving a percentage may not be correct always.Onething I can say.Our knowledge of the weather is slowly increasing and in the coming years the percentage may slowly increase and reach more than 80 percent in another 50 years.

Answer 8

right about 90% of the time.