will we ever see 400 career wins by a pitcher ever again?

Question

well?

Answer 1

Although it seems pretty unlikely, never say never.

Teams now use more pitchers than ever. Who's to say the day won't come when starting pitchers aren't expected to go at least 6 innings, when they will be slated to pitch the first 3 or 4 innings before handing it over to the bullpen? If that happens you could suddenly end up with middle relievers - guys who pitch in 60 games for about 100 innings a year - winning well over 20 games. Someone would have to be credited for a win and a starting pitcher who pitches less than 5 innings can't get credit for it, so....

I know this sounds crazy, and I wouldn't expect it to happen, but baseball changes in ways that are impossible to predict. Who knows what strategies will sweep the game in the future? Not too long ago starters were expected to go deep into ballgames; complete games were a sign of effectiveness. Now a complete game is a relatively rare occurrence. If you told Bob Gibson that in 2006 the best pitcher in major league baseball (Santana) would have 1 complete game he would've thought you were crazy. Who knows what will happen? 40 years from now all the pitchers on a team may each toss between 100-125 innings a year and no one will pitch 200 innings. Someone would have to be credited for all those vultured wins. As odd as it sounds, a guy like Scott Proctor could lead the league in victories.

Answer 2

Never. Players spend more time in the minors developing. The lifespan of a pitcher is shorter and rotations have changed to about 34 starts a season with 5 starters instead of 4. 400 wins would be 20 years averaging 20 wins a year. These days 20 wins gets you a Cy Young - so that would about 20 straight CY's.
Too many pitchers just go hard and fast. There is no way even Johan can keep this up. He is absolutly dominate and only won 19 games but throwing 230 innings a year is a lot and he will break eventually.

We not see another 300 game winner for a long time.

Answer 3

No. Not unless a team goes back to 3 or 4 man rotations. In a 5-man rotation, a top starter will get about 35 starts a year. Even if he wins 20 of those games every single year, he would need to maintain the pace for 20 years. If he pitched 25 years, he would have to average 16 wins a year.

Those types of numbers are simply unattainable with only 35 starts a year.

Answer 4

No way, pitchers just don't have the long lifespan that they used to have; which I guess makes no sense considering pitchers back in the day pitched more innings on less rest. But no, 400 wins is not going to happen, and 300 (after Tom Glavine gets it) will be such a rarity.

Answer 5

Unless "The Rocket" can pull a rabbit out of his hat and go on some unimaginable tear! Maddux I believe has 333 wins or something like that. He's too far away.

As a matter of fact once Tom Glavine (290) gets his 10 wins and Randy Johnson (280) manages to get 20 more, it's going to be a long time before anyone reaches 300 again. With the five man rotation it will be almost impossible.

Answer 6

Greg maddux has an outside shot since he is a finesse pitcher and can possibly average 12-14 wins for the next 5 years.

Answer 7

Not Likely. Pitcher get less opportunities to Pitch with the 5 man rotation. That and the teams are so careful with good pitchers that any little twinge they are super cautious. Lastly the bullpens factor into to many decisions.

Answer 8

Not with a 5 man rotation and the dependency on middle relief to bridge the gap to a team's closer, you'll never see a 400 game winner again.

Answer 9

If Clemens keeps going, he could get it in about 5 years, but it's doubtful because pitchers go on 4 days of rest now.

Answer 10

no a pitcher would have to win like 95% of his games for his whole career