world war 1?

Question

how did chance play a role in the assassination of Franz Ferdinand

Answer 1

Quite a bit -

There was a bungled attempt earlier that same day that resulted in a number of people in the crowd getting injured.

Later, Ferdinand's driver made a wrong turn due to a change in the schedule because of the earlier attempt.

As he was backing up, Princip of the Serbian terrorist group, the Black Hand, who just happened to be in a nearby store having a sandwich, walked out and realizing his good fortune promptly shot and killed the archduke and his wife.

Had the driver been informed of the change, and hadn't made the wrong turn thus forcing him to put the car in a slow reverse at a store that Princip just happened to have conveniently stopped in for a sandwich, then Ferdinand might not have been killed that day.

WWI probably was inevitable given the nationalistic vibes at the time but it would have needed something else to have set the spark thus causing the war to be fought at a later time and perhaps with a different outcome.

Answer 2

Not much. When you are shot at close range it is not a surprise for it to be fatal.

There were seven assassins assigned by the Black Hand to do him in, and it was the second attempt that killed the Archduke and his wife.